Top Ten Behavioral Biases in Project Management - Revision history

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	'''~~A quick definition of bias and fallacy~~'''		'''The ten most important biases in project management according to Flyvbjerg (2021)'''

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	To realize the scenario described above will likely entail fundamental changes to the political-organizational climate in most sectors. It would also entail changes in legislation – at least if criminal penalties were used as a tool to punish (too) inaccurate forecasts. In order to be able to conduct a reference class forecasting, it might be necessary to establish a data platform where organizations can retrieve data on projects that are suitable to include in their reference class, which as well would be a systemic change that must be realized in cross organizational settings.		To realize the scenario described above will likely entail fundamental changes to the political-organizational climate in most sectors. It would also entail changes in legislation – at least if criminal penalties were used as a tool to punish (too) inaccurate forecasts. In order to be able to conduct a reference class forecasting, it might be necessary to establish a data platform where organizations can retrieve data on projects that are suitable to include in their reference class, which as well would be a systemic change that must be realized in cross organizational settings.
	System change might also be needed in relation to cognitive biases, however perhaps with a focus on organizational culture and climate. In 2017, the Danish book Jytte fra marketing er desværre gået for i dag (Translated: Jytte from marketing has unfortunately left the building) gained immense popularity in a Danish context, as it provide tips to tackles biases related to organizational work culture. The popularity of the book might suggest a mature climate to work on biases within an organizational context, and point to a need for these changes.		System change might also be needed in relation to cognitive biases, however perhaps with a focus on organizational culture and climate. In 2017, the Danish book Jytte fra marketing er desværre gået for i dag (Translated: Jytte from marketing has unfortunately left the building) gained immense popularity in a Danish context, as it provide tips to tackles biases related to organizational work culture. The popularity of the book might suggest a mature climate to work on biases within an organizational context, and point to a need for these changes.

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	*Tversky, A. & Kahneman, D. (1974). '''Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases'''. Science, New Series, Vol. 185, No. 4157. (Sep. 27, 1974), pp. 1124-1131. ''A walkthrough of three types of heuristics employed to assess probabilities and the biases that occur in decision making as a result.''		*Tversky, A. & Kahneman, D. (1974). '''Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases'''. Science, New Series, Vol. 185, No. 4157. (Sep. 27, 1974), pp. 1124-1131. ''A walkthrough of three types of heuristics employed to assess probabilities and the biases that occur in decision making as a result.''
	*Flyvbjerg, B. (2006) '''From Nobel Prize to Project Management: Getting Risk Right'''. Project Management Journal, vol. 37, no. 3, August 2006, pp. 5-15. ''An approach to mitigating risk in forecasting projects, focusing on analyzing a group of similar projects as preparation.''		*Flyvbjerg, B. (2006) '''From Nobel Prize to Project Management: Getting Risk Right'''. Project Management Journal, vol. 37, no. 3, August 2006, pp. 5-15. ''An approach to mitigating risk in forecasting projects, focusing on analyzing a group of similar projects as preparation.''
	*Flyvbjerg, B. (2008) ''Curbing optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation in planning: Reference class forecasting in practice''in ''European Planning Studies — 2008'', Volume 16, Issue 1, pp. 3-21. DOI: 10.1080/09654310701747936. ''Provides two examples of how reference class forecasting has been conducted in practice, as well as a discussion of the limitations and positbilities of the method.''		*Flyvbjerg, B. (2008) '''Curbing optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation in planning: Reference class forecasting in practice''in ''European Planning Studies — 2008''', Volume 16, Issue 1, pp. 3-21. DOI: 10.1080/09654310701747936. ''Provides two examples of how reference class forecasting has been conducted in practice, as well as a discussion of the limitations and positbilities of the method.''
	''		''

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	*Bent Flyvbjerg ITU: https://pure.itu.dk/da/persons/bent-flyvbjerg		*Bent Flyvbjerg ITU: https://pure.itu.dk/da/persons/bent-flyvbjerg
	*APA Dictionary of Psychology: https://dictionary.apa.org/bias		*APA Dictionary of Psychology: https://dictionary.apa.org/bias
	*Flyvbjerg, Bent and Glenting, Carsten and Rønnest, Arne (2004) ''Procedures for Dealing with Optimism Bias in Transport Planning''. London: The British Department for Transport, Guidance Document, June 2004, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2278346		*Flyvbjerg, Bent and Glenting, Carsten and Rønnest, Arne (2004) '''Procedures for Dealing with Optimism Bias in Transport Planning'''. London: The British Department for Transport, Guidance Document, June 2004, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2278346
	*Flyvbjerg, Bent, 2017, "Introduction: The Iron Law of Megaproject Management", in Bent Flyvbjerg, ed., The Oxford Handbook of Megaproject Management(Oxford: Oxford University Press), pp. 1-18.		*Flyvbjerg, Bent(2017), '''Introduction: The Iron Law of Megaproject Management''', in Bent Flyvbjerg, ed., The Oxford Handbook of Megaproject Management(Oxford: Oxford University Press), pp. 1-18.
	*Bent Flyvbjerg (2009): Survival of the unfittest: why the worst infrastructure gets built—and what we can do about it, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Volume 25, Issue 3, Autumn 2009, Pages 344–367, https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grp024		*Bent Flyvbjerg (2009): '''Survival of the unfittest: why the worst infrastructure gets built—and what we can do about it''', Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Volume 25, Issue 3, Autumn 2009, Pages 344–367, https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grp024
	*•Maylor & Turner (2016) Understand, reduce, respond: Project complexity management theory and practice. International Journal of Operations & Production Management, Vol. 37 No. 8, 2017
	~~pp. 1076-1093, Emerald Publishing Limited 0144-3577, DOI 10.1108/IJOPM-05-2016-0263~~

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	The purpose of this method is to incorporate an outside view on the project at hand. Flyvbjerg explains why this method works to mitigate biases: “In the outside view project managers and forecasters are not required to make scenarios, imagine events, or gauge their own and others' levels of ability and control, so they cannot get all these things wrong. Human bias is bypassed” (Flyvbjerg, 2006, p. 9).		The purpose of this method is to incorporate an outside view on the project at hand. Flyvbjerg explains why this method works to mitigate biases: “In the outside view project managers and forecasters are not required to make scenarios, imagine events, or gauge their own and others' levels of ability and control, so they cannot get all these things wrong. Human bias is bypassed” (Flyvbjerg, 2006, p. 9).

	The method requires that there is a sufficient amount of empirical data to make sufficiently robust conclusions regarding the probability distribution for the reference class. If political bias is the most dominating course of inaccurate forecasting, a more fundamental change in the forecasting climate across organizations will likely be needed, to a system where accuracy is rewarded (Flyvbjerg, ~~2016~~).		The method requires that there is a sufficient amount of empirical data to make sufficiently robust conclusions regarding the probability distribution for the reference class. If political bias is the most dominating course of inaccurate forecasting, a more fundamental change in the forecasting climate across organizations will likely be needed, to a system where accuracy is rewarded (Flyvbjerg, 2006).


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	*Tversky, A. & Kahneman, D. (1974). '''Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases'''. Science, New Series, Vol. 185, No. 4157. (Sep. 27, 1974), pp. 1124-1131. ''A walkthrough of three types of heuristics employed to assess probabilities and the biases that occur in decision making as a result.''		*Tversky, A. & Kahneman, D. (1974). '''Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases'''. Science, New Series, Vol. 185, No. 4157. (Sep. 27, 1974), pp. 1124-1131. ''A walkthrough of three types of heuristics employed to assess probabilities and the biases that occur in decision making as a result.''
	*Flyvbjerg, B. (2006) '''From Nobel Prize to Project Management: Getting Risk Right'''. Project Management Journal, vol. 37, no. 3, August 2006, pp. 5-15. ''An approach to mitigating risk in forecasting projects, focusing on analyzing a group of similar projects as preparation.''		*Flyvbjerg, B. (2006) '''From Nobel Prize to Project Management: Getting Risk Right'''. Project Management Journal, vol. 37, no. 3, August 2006, pp. 5-15. ''An approach to mitigating risk in forecasting projects, focusing on analyzing a group of similar projects as preparation.''
	*~~Kreiner~~, K. (~~2020~~)~~. Conflicting Notions of a Project~~: '''~~The Battle Between Albert O. Hirschman and Bent Flyvbjerg~~'''~~. Project Management Journal~~, ~~51(4)~~, ~~400~~-~~410~~. ~~https~~:~~//doi.org/~~10.~~1177~~/~~8756972820930535~~. ''A discussion of ~~Albert O. Hirshman’s notion~~ of the ~~Hiding Hand and Bent Flyvbjerg’s notion that it is possible to construct better forecasting in megaprojects~~.		*Flyvbjerg, B. (2008) ''Curbing optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation in planning: Reference class forecasting in practice''in ''European Planning Studies — 2008'', Volume 16, Issue 1, pp. 3-21. DOI: 10.1080/09654310701747936. ''Provides two examples of how reference class forecasting has been conducted in practice, as well as a discussion of the limitations and positbilities of the method.''
	''		''

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	*Bent Flyvbjerg ITU: https://pure.itu.dk/da/persons/bent-flyvbjerg		*Bent Flyvbjerg ITU: https://pure.itu.dk/da/persons/bent-flyvbjerg
	*APA Dictionary of Psychology: https://dictionary.apa.org/bias		*APA Dictionary of Psychology: https://dictionary.apa.org/bias
			*Flyvbjerg, Bent and Glenting, Carsten and Rønnest, Arne (2004) ''Procedures for Dealing with Optimism Bias in Transport Planning''. London: The British Department for Transport, Guidance Document, June 2004, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2278346
	*Flyvbjerg, Bent, 2017, "Introduction: The Iron Law of Megaproject Management", in Bent Flyvbjerg, ed., The Oxford Handbook of Megaproject Management(Oxford: Oxford University Press), pp. 1-18.		*Flyvbjerg, Bent, 2017, "Introduction: The Iron Law of Megaproject Management", in Bent Flyvbjerg, ed., The Oxford Handbook of Megaproject Management(Oxford: Oxford University Press), pp. 1-18.
			*Bent Flyvbjerg (2009): Survival of the unfittest: why the worst infrastructure gets built—and what we can do about it, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Volume 25, Issue 3, Autumn 2009, Pages 344–367, https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grp024
	*•Maylor & Turner (2016) Understand, reduce, respond: Project complexity management theory and practice. International Journal of Operations & Production Management, Vol. 37 No. 8, 2017		*•Maylor & Turner (2016) Understand, reduce, respond: Project complexity management theory and practice. International Journal of Operations & Production Management, Vol. 37 No. 8, 2017
	pp. 1076-1093, Emerald Publishing Limited 0144-3577, DOI 10.1108/IJOPM-05-2016-0263		pp. 1076-1093, Emerald Publishing Limited 0144-3577, DOI 10.1108/IJOPM-05-2016-0263

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	'''Annotated bibliography'''		'''Annotated bibliography'''


	*Flyvbjerg, B. (2021). '''Top Ten Behavioral Biases in Project Management: An Overview.''' Project Management Journal, Volume 52, Issue 6, December 2021, Pages 531-546. ''The main article described in this wiki article, identifying the ten most important biases for project management, their impact on project management. Includes a reflection on what can be done to mitigate the effects, thus heighten the chances of successful management.''		*Flyvbjerg, B. (2021). '''Top Ten Behavioral Biases in Project Management: An Overview.''' Project Management Journal, Volume 52, Issue 6, December 2021, Pages 531-546. ''The main article described in this wiki article, identifying the ten most important biases for project management, their impact on project management. Includes a reflection on what can be done to mitigate the effects, thus heighten the chances of successful management.''
	*Project Management Institute (2021). '''The standard for project management and a guide to the project management body of knowledge (PMBOK guide)'''. Seventh edition. Newtown Square, Pennsylvania: Project Management Institute, Inc ''A collection of fundamental concepts and constructs of the project management profession, divided into 12 principles of project management and eight project performance domains.''		*Project Management Institute (2021). '''The standard for project management and a guide to the project management body of knowledge (PMBOK guide)'''. Seventh edition. Newtown Square, Pennsylvania: Project Management Institute, Inc ''A collection of fundamental concepts and constructs of the project management profession, divided into 12 principles of project management and eight project performance domains.''

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	\|+ The following table is a direct excerpt from Flyvbjerg (2021, p. 531)		\|+ ''The following table is a direct excerpt from Flyvbjerg (2021, p. 531)''
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	! Bias !! Description		! Bias !! Description

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	'''A quick definition of bias and fallacy'''		'''A quick definition of bias and fallacy'''

	Biases are according to the APA defined as “…any tendency or preference”, whereas a fallacy is defined as; “an error in reasoning or argument that leads to a conclusion that may appear valid but is actually invalid”(APA). The two psychologists Daniel ~~Kahnemann~~ and Amos Tversky played a significant role in pushing forward research that investigates the effect of biases and fallacies in judgment and decision making (Flyvbjerg, 2021). Their research has had a particular significant role in the field of behavioral economics, and Kahneman won in 2002 the nobel prize for their research contributions to the field of economy.		Biases are according to the APA defined as “…any tendency or preference”, whereas a fallacy is defined as; “an error in reasoning or argument that leads to a conclusion that may appear valid but is actually invalid”(APA). The two psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky played a significant role in pushing forward research that investigates the effect of biases and fallacies in judgment and decision making (Flyvbjerg, 2021). Their research has had a particular significant role in the field of behavioral economics, and Kahneman won in 2002 the nobel prize for their research contributions to the field of economy.
	For more information regarding the history of biases in behavioral economics, please see the Wikipedia articles on [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Kahneman/ Daniel ~~Kahnemann~~], Amos Tversky and Behavioral Economics.		For more information regarding the history of biases in behavioral economics, please see the Wikipedia articles on [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Kahneman/ Daniel Kahneman], [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amos_Tversky/ Amos Tversky] and [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behavioral_economics/ Behavioral Economics].

	Bent Flyvbjerg build on top of Kahnemann and Tversky’s research, but emphasizes a distinction between a political- and a cognitive bias. The former is a tendency which root cause is political, and where the subject is aware of the deception. The latter is a tendency which root cause is psychological, and where the bias leads to self-deception (Flyvbjerg, 2021, p. 532).		Bent Flyvbjerg build on top of Kahnemann and Tversky’s research, but emphasizes a distinction between a political- and a cognitive bias. The former is a tendency which root cause is political, and where the subject is aware of the deception. The latter is a tendency which root cause is psychological, and where the bias leads to self-deception (Flyvbjerg, 2021, p. 532).

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	Biases are according to the APA defined as “…any tendency or preference”, whereas a fallacy is defined as; “an error in reasoning or argument that leads to a conclusion that may appear valid but is actually invalid”(APA). The two psychologists Daniel Kahnemann and Amos Tversky played a significant role in pushing forward research that investigates the effect of biases and fallacies in judgment and decision making (Flyvbjerg, 2021). Their research has had a particular significant role in the field of behavioral economics, and Kahneman won in 2002 the nobel prize for their research contributions to the field of economy.		Biases are according to the APA defined as “…any tendency or preference”, whereas a fallacy is defined as; “an error in reasoning or argument that leads to a conclusion that may appear valid but is actually invalid”(APA). The two psychologists Daniel Kahnemann and Amos Tversky played a significant role in pushing forward research that investigates the effect of biases and fallacies in judgment and decision making (Flyvbjerg, 2021). Their research has had a particular significant role in the field of behavioral economics, and Kahneman won in 2002 the nobel prize for their research contributions to the field of economy.
	For more information regarding the history of biases in behavioral economics, please see the Wikipedia articles on Daniel Kahnemann, Amos Tversky and Behavioral Economics.		For more information regarding the history of biases in behavioral economics, please see the Wikipedia articles on [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Kahneman/ Daniel Kahnemann], Amos Tversky and Behavioral Economics.

	Bent Flyvbjerg build on top of Kahnemann and Tversky’s research, but emphasizes a distinction between a political- and a cognitive bias. The former is a tendency which root cause is political, and where the subject is aware of the deception. The latter is a tendency which root cause is psychological, and where the bias leads to self-deception (Flyvbjerg, 2021, p. 532).		Bent Flyvbjerg build on top of Kahnemann and Tversky’s research, but emphasizes a distinction between a political- and a cognitive bias. The former is a tendency which root cause is political, and where the subject is aware of the deception. The latter is a tendency which root cause is psychological, and where the bias leads to self-deception (Flyvbjerg, 2021, p. 532).

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	One thing is to be aware of one’s own biases as a project manager, and to be interested in making more accurate forecasts. But what about the situation where there is no incentive to improve accuracy? This kind of behaviour can be motivated by the desire to get a project approved (Flyvbjerg, 2009). As such, there can be a lack of incitement within an organizations, and collegaues might question project managers that are enforcing more realistic forecasting.		One thing is to be aware of one’s own biases as a project manager, and to be interested in making more accurate forecasts. But what about the situation where there is no incentive to improve accuracy? This kind of behaviour can be motivated by the desire to get a project approved (Flyvbjerg, 2009). As such, there can be a lack of incitement within an organizations, and collegaues might question project managers that are enforcing more realistic forecasting.

	The biases might be imbedded in corporate culture. Flyvbjerg does acknowledge that the treatment of especially political biases will likely go through changing the entire system, to reward better forecasting and punish bad ones, as Flyvbjerg (2006) highlights in this paragraph:		''The biases might be imbedded in corporate culture. Flyvbjerg does acknowledge that the treatment of especially political biases will likely go through changing the entire system, to reward better forecasting and punish bad ones, as Flyvbjerg (2006) highlights in this paragraph:
	“Forecasters and promoters should be made to carry the full risks of their forecasts. Their work should be reviewed by independent bodies such as national auditors or independent analysts, and such bodies would need reference class forecasting to do their work. Projects with inflated benefit-cost ratios should be stopped or placed on hold. Professional and even criminal penalties should be considered for people who consistently produce misleading forecasts.”		“Forecasters and promoters should be made to carry the full risks of their forecasts. Their work should be reviewed by independent bodies such as national auditors or independent analysts, and such bodies would need reference class forecasting to do their work. Projects with inflated benefit-cost ratios should be stopped or placed on hold. Professional and even criminal penalties should be considered for people who consistently produce misleading forecasts''.”
	- Flyvbjerg, 2006, p. 17		- Flyvbjerg, 2006, p. 17