The Delphi Technique in Project Management - Revision history

Tkokotas at 13:08, 18 December 2018

2018-12-18T13:08:27Z

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			''Developed by Marco Ronzoni''


	According to the definition of ISO 21500:2012 <ref name="howtodo">Geraldi J., Thuesen C., Oehmen J., How to do Projects, Version 0.5</ref> <ref>Maylor H., Project Management, 4th edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010</ref> a Project is: “A unique set of processes consisting of coordinated and controlled activities with start and end dates, performed to achieve project objectives. Achievement of the project objectives requires the provision of deliverables conforming to specific requirements”. The Delphi technique is used mostly for reaching consensus among experts, regarding the decision making process. Moreover, as a project manager is crucial to think about the impact that possible future events can have on your projects. This technique helps also in forecasting the future with some grade of certainty, estimating likelihood and outcomes. The iterative process consist of anonymous exchange of views, assumptions and prevision given to a facilitator, that will write a conclusive report. The group will read the report of the previous meeting, update their discussion and thoughts for the new report. The process continue in this way until the consensus is reached among all the participants. The anonymity assure the free expression of opinion and encourage openness. The process will start from a broad perspective than in the end will scope the core problems and questions to assure consensus; there are 3 phases to follow:		According to the definition of ISO 21500:2012 <ref name="howtodo">Geraldi J., Thuesen C., Oehmen J., How to do Projects, Version 0.5</ref> <ref>Maylor H., Project Management, 4th edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010</ref> a Project is: “A unique set of processes consisting of coordinated and controlled activities with start and end dates, performed to achieve project objectives. Achievement of the project objectives requires the provision of deliverables conforming to specific requirements”. The Delphi technique is used mostly for reaching consensus among experts, regarding the decision making process. Moreover, as a project manager is crucial to think about the impact that possible future events can have on your projects. This technique helps also in forecasting the future with some grade of certainty, estimating likelihood and outcomes. The iterative process consist of anonymous exchange of views, assumptions and prevision given to a facilitator, that will write a conclusive report. The group will read the report of the previous meeting, update their discussion and thoughts for the new report. The process continue in this way until the consensus is reached among all the participants. The anonymity assure the free expression of opinion and encourage openness. The process will start from a broad perspective than in the end will scope the core problems and questions to assure consensus; there are 3 phases to follow:

Marcoronzoni: /* Conclusion */

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Conclusion

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	==Conclusion==		==Conclusion==
	~~So to conclude~~, the structure of ~~this~~ technique gives time to the participants to think properly about their opinion and responses, being so able to contribute with full hand at the problem that has to be solved or in the discussion. Moreover, the iterative nature of this approach gives the opportunity to refine, narrow down and test the arguments of the members (being able also to tone down some possible hard statements).		In conclusion, the structure of the Delphi technique gives time to the participants to think properly about their opinion and responses, being so able to contribute with full hand at the problem that has to be solved or in the discussion. Moreover, the iterative nature of this approach gives the opportunity to refine, narrow down and test the arguments of the members (being able also to tone down some possible hard statements).
	Also, there is the opportunity to aggregate different opinions from experts without the need to have a physical meeting; it is different also from other methods because it is flexible and there are incorporated qualitative and quantitative approaches in it.		Also, there is the opportunity to aggregate different opinions from experts without the need to have a physical meeting; it is different also from other methods because it is flexible and there are incorporated qualitative and quantitative approaches in it.

Marcoronzoni: /* Comparison between present and future */

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Comparison between present and future

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	*Librarian will be a value added to the science found on internet		*Librarian will be a value added to the science found on internet

	Other cases can be ~~seen~~ in the works of Giannarakis <ref> Giannarakis G., Litinas N., Theotokas I., 2010, "A Delphi Study to identify corporate social responsibility indicators: The case of Greek telecommunication sector"		Other cases can be checked in the works of Giannarakis <ref> Giannarakis G., Litinas N., Theotokas I., 2010, "A Delphi Study to identify corporate social responsibility indicators: The case of Greek telecommunication sector"
	</ref>, of Hsu and Sandford <ref> Hsu C.C., Sandford B.A., 2007, The Delphi technique: Making sense of consensus, Practical assessment, research & evaluation.		</ref>, of Hsu and Sandford <ref> Hsu C.C., Sandford B.A., 2007, The Delphi technique: Making sense of consensus, Practical assessment, research & evaluation.
	</ref> and some real applications are also inside the works of Dalkey <ref name="dal2" /> and Hanafin ,<ref name="han"/> if interested in having more detailed explanations of cases.		</ref> and some real applications are also inside the works of Dalkey <ref name="dal2" /> and Hanafin ,<ref name="han"/> if interested in having more detailed explanations of cases.

Marcoronzoni: /* Rounds and Questionnaires */

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Rounds and Questionnaires

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	===Rounds and Questionnaires===		===Rounds and Questionnaires===
	----		----
	Mainly because this method is time demanding they did not have the opportunity to test it before effectively starting. This meant some misunderstandings in the beginning, but it went better and better with the passing of rounds.		Mainly, because this method is time demanding, they did not have the opportunity to test it before effectively starting. This meant some misunderstandings in the beginning, but it went better and better with the passing of rounds.
	In the first ~~round~~ the questions were about the differences between 2005 (present) and 2015 (future), rating also the things decided in 1999 (past). In the second and third round the focus was on librarians and academic libraries among four categories: 1) Internet as a competitor, 2) Local vs. remote access, 3) Printed vs. electronic media and 4) Staff and user training. Examples of the questionnaires (rounds 1, 2, 3) can be found in the pictures below (for more detail check the references):		In the first one the questions were about the differences between 2005 (present) and 2015 (future), rating also the things decided in 1999 (past). In the second and third round the focus was on librarians and academic libraries among four categories: 1) Internet as a competitor, 2) Local vs. remote access, 3) Printed vs. electronic media and 4) Staff and user training. Examples of the questionnaires (rounds 1, 2, 3) can be found in the pictures below (for more detail check the references):

	[[File:task1.PNG\|530px\|thumb\|center\|Figure 4: Part of the questionnaire round 1<ref name="case" /> ]]		[[File:task1.PNG\|530px\|thumb\|center\|Figure 4: Part of the questionnaire round 1<ref name="case" /> ]]

Marcoronzoni: /* Steps */

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Steps

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	===Steps===		===Steps===
	----		----
	The participants were 36 coming from 20 different countries (online meeting application) in 4 continents <ref name="case" />. The steps used in this specific case (accordingly with the theory) were:		The participants were 36 coming from 20 different countries (online meeting application) in 4 continents. <ref name="case" /> The steps used in this specific case (accordingly with the theory) were:
	*Formation of the panel of professionals		*Formation of the panel of professionals
	*Development and distribution of the first questionnaire		*Development and distribution of the first questionnaire

Marcoronzoni: /* Applications */

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Applications

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	The most common types of applications are when there is the need to explore an issue with a group of people, when you want to move a group towards consensus, when a particular problem does not permit the use of an analytical tool, when the participants are not able to meet physically or when they are too many.		The most common types of applications are when there is the need to explore an issue with a group of people, when you want to move a group towards consensus, when a particular problem does not permit the use of an analytical tool, when the participants are not able to meet physically or when they are too many.
	This method can be used for several reasons according to Linstone <ref name="bookk"/>: helping the decision making process as a group, to gain inputs from experts, to define some needs, to identify results, to prioritize some causes, to suggest solutions, to define future goals. Moreover, other uses are: to anticipate outcomes, to plan and schedule, for problem solving, for data collection, to identify dimensions of a problem or to forecast.		This method can be used for several reasons according to Linstone <ref name="bookk"/>: helping the decision making process as a group, to gain inputs from experts, to define some needs, to identify results, to prioritize some causes, to suggest solutions, to define future goals. Moreover, other uses are: to anticipate outcomes, to plan and schedule, for problem solving, for data collection, to identify dimensions of a problem or to forecast.
	Delphi Method can be ~~done~~ with small or big group (hundreds of people), but the common way schedule nearly 20 people. It is useful especially when there are many experts to contact, meaning that the consensus is difficult to reach and when the experts are located in different parts of the world.
			Delphi Method can be applied with small or big group (hundreds of people), but the common way schedule nearly 20 people. It is useful especially when there are many experts to contact, meaning that the consensus is difficult to reach and when the experts are located in different parts of the world.

	The first step is to select a group of experts based on the topic that has to be analyzed, later a questionnaire is given to all the participants with instructions for each topic and on how to write opinions, experience and personal researches. These questionnaires are then send to the facilitator that puts together all the comments and send a copy to each participant. At the end of every session all the questionnaire are send again to the facilitator who will decide if there is the need of another round or not, the iteration can be done as many time as necessary to achieve the final consensus.		The first step is to select a group of experts based on the topic that has to be analyzed, later a questionnaire is given to all the participants with instructions for each topic and on how to write opinions, experience and personal researches. These questionnaires are then send to the facilitator that puts together all the comments and send a copy to each participant. At the end of every session all the questionnaire are send again to the facilitator who will decide if there is the need of another round or not, the iteration can be done as many time as necessary to achieve the final consensus.
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	----		----
	Other common applications in projects, suggested and explained by Hanafin <ref name="han"/> and Linstone <ref name="bookk"/> are:		Other common applications in projects, suggested and explained by Hanafin <ref name="han"/> and Linstone <ref name="bookk"/> are:
	*In time management to estimate the duration of activities		*In time management to estimate the duration of activities.
	*In cost management to estimate the different costs		*In cost management to estimate the different costs.
	*In risk management to identify the risks		*In risk management to identify the risks.
	*In scope management to collect various requirements		*In scope management to collect various requirements.
	*Government planning		*Government planning.
	*Business and industry		*Business and industry.
	*Culture, family and behavior		*Culture, family and behavior.
	*Education and training		*Education and training.
	*Communications		*Communications.
	*International Security		*International Security.

	==Limitations and Benefits==		==Limitations and Benefits==

Marcoronzoni: /* Types of Delphi */

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Types of Delphi

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	----		----
	Hanafin <ref name="han">Hanafin S., Review of literature on the Delphi Technique, March 2004		Hanafin <ref name="han">Hanafin S., Review of literature on the Delphi Technique, March 2004
	</ref> in his literature review explains some different types of Delphi:		</ref>, in his literature review, explains some different types of Delphi:
	*Classical Delphi: 5 features: Anonymity, Iteration, Feedback, Statistical group ~~response~~ and Response stability among experts on a specific issue.		*Classical Delphi: 5 features such as Anonymity, Iteration, Feedback, Statistical group answers and Response stability among experts on a specific issue.
	*Policy Delphi: the aim is to generate policy using a structured dialogue, it is possible to have several divergent opinions from experts. The features are: Answer questions individually but together in the meeting, Iteration, Feedback, Polarized group response and conflicts.		*Policy Delphi: the aim is to generate policy using a structured dialogue, it is possible to have several divergent opinions from experts. The features are: Answer questions individually but together in the meeting, Iteration, Feedback, Polarized group response and conflicts.
	*Decision Delphi: used to reach an high grade of involvement among decision makers on social issues, from different hierarchy positions. Here the names are mentioned, but the responses to the questionnaires are anonymous.		*Decision Delphi: used to reach an high grade of involvement among decision makers on social issues, from different hierarchy positions. Here in this type, the names are mentioned, but the responses to the questionnaires are anonymous.

	A modified Delphi method is called “The nominal group technique”, Bishop <ref name="bish"/> said that the main difference is that the meetings are done face-to-face, (starting with an open-ended question) aiming at a group discussion to reach consensus. Ideas and thoughts about the topic are shared and recorded, each person evaluate the ideas anonymously and individually votes for the best ones keeping the anonymity; finally, a report with the responses is prepared. NGT is more structured than the Brainstorming technique, obtaining multiple inputs from experts on precise issues. Used mostly in educational contexts, this specific tool is helpful because researches ~~shows~~ that individuals produce more ideas when working alone and they do it without sacrificing the quality. As it is for Delphi, the facilitator here has to be an expert in the field or a person with credibility among the participants. This technique it is useful when there are little evidences but some decisions needs to be made, or when there is the need to rank priorities during a group meeting.		A modified Delphi method is called “The nominal group technique”. Bishop <ref name="bish"/> said that the main difference is that the meetings are done face-to-face, (starting with an open-ended question) aiming at a group discussion to reach consensus. Ideas and thoughts about the topic are shared and recorded, each person evaluate the ideas anonymously and individually votes for the best ones keeping the anonymity and finally, a report with the responses is prepared.

			NGT is more structured than the Brainstorming technique, obtaining multiple inputs from experts on precise issues. Used mostly in educational contexts, this specific tool is helpful because researches show that individuals produce more ideas when working alone and they do it without sacrificing the quality. As it is for Delphi, the facilitator here has to be an expert in the field or a person with credibility among the participants. This technique it is useful when there are little evidences but some decisions needs to be made, or when there is the need to rank priorities during a group meeting.

	[[File:ccc.PNG\|530px\|thumb\|center\|Figure 3: Stages of NGT technique <ref name="bish"/>]]		[[File:ccc.PNG\|530px\|thumb\|center\|Figure 3: Stages of NGT technique <ref name="bish"/>]]

Marcoronzoni: /* General Concept */

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General Concept

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	According to Bishop<ref name="bish">Bishop C., Pitchforth E, Russell E., van Teijlingen E., Delphi method and nominal group techniques in family planning and reproductive health research		According to Bishop<ref name="bish">Bishop C., Pitchforth E, Russell E., van Teijlingen E., Delphi method and nominal group techniques in family planning and reproductive health research
	</ref>, Williams <ref>Williams PL, Webb C. The Delphi Technique: a methodological discussion. J		</ref>, Williams <ref>Williams PL, Webb C. The Delphi Technique: a methodological discussion. J
	Adv Nurs 1994;19:180-6.</ref> and Helmer <ref name= "hel"/> the main feature of consensus are: (1) Anonymity, in order to avoid some dominant character and implemented using private questionnaires; (2) Iteration, the structure with rounds allows the participants to change their opinions along the process; (3) Controlled feedback, showing the different responses of the individuals inside the group; (4) Statistical group response, measuring and judging the summary of all the responses, having much more detailed information.		Adv Nurs 1994;19:180-6.</ref> and Helmer <ref name= "hel"/> the main feature of consensus are as follow: (1) Anonymity, in order to avoid some dominant character and implemented using private questionnaires; (2) Iteration, the structure with rounds allows the participants to change their opinions along the process; (3) Controlled feedback, showing the different responses of the individuals inside the group; (4) Statistical group response, measuring and judging the summary of all the responses, having much more detailed information.

	Respondents usually rate their agreement on a specific statement or sentence with a five point scale, for instance, (1) means “strongly disagree” and (5) “strongly agree”. In the end the topics with 4 as average (or higher) and with standard deviation below 1 are considered areas in which the agreement is found (the so-called: “items of consensus”). There is not the purpose to arrive always at the unanimity among all the experts, conversely a spread of opinions in the end is a common outcome (this can be considered as a limitation and risk).Typical evidences shows that the opinion is converging during the phases and the average response moves in the direction of the true reply; this is mainly due to three different factors explained by Dalkey<ref name="dal1">Dalkey N.C., Delphi, 1967, The RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California		Respondents usually rate their agreement on a specific statement or sentence with a five point scale, for instance, (1) means “strongly disagree” and (5) “strongly agree”. In the end the topics with 4 as average (or higher) and with standard deviation below 1 are considered areas in which the agreement is found (the so-called: “items of consensus”). There is not the purpose to arrive always at the unanimity among all the experts, conversely a spread of opinions in the end is a common outcome (this can be considered as a limitation and risk).Typical evidences shows that the opinion is converging during the phases and the average response moves in the direction of the true reply; this is mainly due to three different factors explained by Dalkey<ref name="dal1">Dalkey N.C., Delphi, 1967, The RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California

Marcoronzoni: /* General Concept */

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General Concept

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	This method is recognized, adopted and is it still used nowadays. Treating uncertainty is a central issue in project management: “Project management is about reducing uncertainty step by step until it has been eliminated completely, for better or worse, and we achieved a particular result”, an entire literature about risk management can be found if interested in "How to do Projects" <ref name="howtodo"/> to have more explanations.		This method is recognized, adopted and is it still used nowadays. Treating uncertainty is a central issue in project management: “Project management is about reducing uncertainty step by step until it has been eliminated completely, for better or worse, and we achieved a particular result”, an entire literature about risk management can be found if interested in "How to do Projects" <ref name="howtodo"/> to have more explanations.

	The Delphi method tries to break the stereotype that says: “When you get three experts together, you'll often end up with four different opinions.” Every project has his own characteristics and needs, consequently there is often not just one-size-fits all solution, we have to narrow down all parts to find the customized solution for the specific case.		The Delphi method tries to break the stereotype that says: “When you get three experts together, you'll often end up with four different opinions.” Every project has his own characteristics and needs, consequently there is often not just one-size-fits all solution, we have to narrow down all parts to find the customized solution for the specific case.
	The participants in the process do not necessarily need to meet, sometimes they even do not know who are the other participants, only the facilitator knows everything and manages the information flow in order to avoid possible repercussions. The anonymity helps avoiding personal issues between member and the so-called “groupthink”. The phenomenon of groupthink can be really dangerous in an organisation, is marked by the consensus of opinion without thinking critically and evaluating other alternatives and consequences. The core point of this mistake is to do not break the status quo of the group, avoiding conflicts and creativity, this will reduce the pressure of the group toward conformity.		The participants in the process do not necessarily need to meet, sometimes they even do not know who are the other participants, only the facilitator knows everything and manages the information flow in order to avoid possible repercussions. The anonymity helps avoiding personal issues between member and the so-called “groupthink”. The phenomenon of groupthink can be really dangerous in an organisation, is marked by the consensus of opinion without thinking critically and evaluating other alternatives and consequences. The core point of this mistake is to do not break the status quo of the group, avoiding conflicts and creativity, this will reduce the pressure of the group toward conformity.

Marcoronzoni: /* General Concept */

2016-09-26T16:27:46Z

General Concept

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	midwifery students to identify non-midwifery duties Midwifery 2002; 18 (4):		midwifery students to identify non-midwifery duties Midwifery 2002; 18 (4):
	314-322.</ref> to be reached between 70% and 51%).		314-322.</ref> to be reached between 70% and 51%).
	This method is recognized, adopted and is it still used nowadays. Treating uncertainty is a central issue in project management: “Project management is about reducing uncertainty step by step until it has been eliminated completely, for better or worse, and we achieved a particular result”, an entire literature about risk management can be found if interested in "How to do Projects" <ref name="howtodo"/> to have more explanations. ~~This~~ method tries to break the stereotype that says: “When you get three experts together, you'll often end up with four different opinions.” Every project has his own characteristics and needs, consequently there is often not just one-size-fits all solution, we have to narrow down all parts to find the customized solution for the specific case.
			This method is recognized, adopted and is it still used nowadays. Treating uncertainty is a central issue in project management: “Project management is about reducing uncertainty step by step until it has been eliminated completely, for better or worse, and we achieved a particular result”, an entire literature about risk management can be found if interested in "How to do Projects" <ref name="howtodo"/> to have more explanations.
			The Delphi method tries to break the stereotype that says: “When you get three experts together, you'll often end up with four different opinions.” Every project has his own characteristics and needs, consequently there is often not just one-size-fits all solution, we have to narrow down all parts to find the customized solution for the specific case.
	The participants in the process do not necessarily need to meet, sometimes they even do not know who are the other participants, only the facilitator knows everything and manages the information flow in order to avoid possible repercussions. The anonymity helps avoiding personal issues between member and the so-called “groupthink”. The phenomenon of groupthink can be really dangerous in an organisation, is marked by the consensus of opinion without thinking critically and evaluating other alternatives and consequences. The core point of this mistake is to do not break the status quo of the group, avoiding conflicts and creativity, this will reduce the pressure of the group toward conformity.		The participants in the process do not necessarily need to meet, sometimes they even do not know who are the other participants, only the facilitator knows everything and manages the information flow in order to avoid possible repercussions. The anonymity helps avoiding personal issues between member and the so-called “groupthink”. The phenomenon of groupthink can be really dangerous in an organisation, is marked by the consensus of opinion without thinking critically and evaluating other alternatives and consequences. The core point of this mistake is to do not break the status quo of the group, avoiding conflicts and creativity, this will reduce the pressure of the group toward conformity.