Scenario Planning - Revision history

Tkokotas at 12:29, 18 December 2018

2018-12-18T12:29:06Z

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			''Developed by Karoline Bråten''


	==Abstract==		==Abstract==
	For a construction company to achieve success is it important to have good planning within the business. Most planes are based on predictions of the future, however the future is unknown, complex and changes much faster than in previous times. By developing and using scenario planning, will the company be prepared for the possible range of futures.		For a construction company to achieve success is it important to have good planning within the business. Most planes are based on predictions of the future, however the future is unknown, complex and changes much faster than in previous times. By developing and using scenario planning, will the company be prepared for the possible range of futures.

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Abstract

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	Scenario planning in businesses and thus construction management are divided into two categories. The first category is used to foresee a future state or condition, which is further used to simulate the choices and actions that may be taken to deal the scenario and the related consequences. The second category assumes that the choices has been established and the consequences are integrated into the story about the future state of the business. The first category simulates the thinking-process, and the second the exploring of the consequences of the choices taken. <ref name="Coates">Coats, Joseph F., "Scenario Planning", page 115-123, 2000, http://production.datastore.cvt.dk/filestore?oid=53a033d1ecd9f0954c085a67&targetid=53a033d1ecd9f0954c085a69 </ref> Further in this article will scenarios be referenced to as a combination of these two categories.		Scenario planning in businesses and thus construction management are divided into two categories. The first category is used to foresee a future state or condition, which is further used to simulate the choices and actions that may be taken to deal the scenario and the related consequences. The second category assumes that the choices has been established and the consequences are integrated into the story about the future state of the business. The first category simulates the thinking-process, and the second the exploring of the consequences of the choices taken. <ref name="Coates">Coats, Joseph F., "Scenario Planning", page 115-123, 2000, http://production.datastore.cvt.dk/filestore?oid=53a033d1ecd9f0954c085a67&targetid=53a033d1ecd9f0954c085a69 </ref> Further in this article will scenarios be referenced to as a combination of these two categories.

	Scenario planning was developed in the 1950’s by Herman Kahn, <ref name="PICMET"> Schumacher, "Constructing Vision with Scenario Planning", 2012 Proceedings of PICMET '12: Technology Management for Emerging Technologies, page 122-132, 2012, http://ieeexplore.ieee.org.proxy.findit.dtu.dk/document/6304030/</ref> and even though the tool is hard to establish when to be used, is “uncertainty” a common denominator. When choosing to applying scenario planning is it common to follow some common characteristics and elements divided into ~~six~~ phases. The number of scenarios is varying, however there is a danger in developing three scenarios. The common perception is to choose the middle-scenario, the “average”.		Scenario planning was developed in the 1950’s by Herman Kahn, <ref name="PICMET"> Schumacher, "Constructing Vision with Scenario Planning", 2012 Proceedings of PICMET '12: Technology Management for Emerging Technologies, page 122-132, 2012, http://ieeexplore.ieee.org.proxy.findit.dtu.dk/document/6304030/</ref> and even though the tool is hard to establish when to be used, is “uncertainty” a common denominator. When choosing to applying scenario planning is it common to follow some common characteristics and elements divided into phases. The number of scenarios is varying, however there is a danger in developing three scenarios. The common perception is to choose the middle-scenario, the “average”.

	Scenario planning has become a popular tool for businesses. Even though we do not know how the future will look like, we know that it will not look like the past or today, however, you can be involved in how it will unfold. As a ~~business~~ globalizes will ~~the business~~, sometime in the future, be in the position where it must deal with costumers, regulators, culture, economic factors, etc. <ref name="Coates" /> Moreover, whichever scenario that become reality, will the business be more prepared with scenario planning.		Scenario planning has become a popular tool for businesses. Even though we do not know how the future will look like, we do know that it will not look like the past or today, however, you can be involved in how it will unfold. As a company globalizes will it, sometime in the future, be in the position where it must deal with costumers, regulators, culture, economic factors, etc. <ref name="Coates" /> Moreover, whichever scenario that become reality, will the business be more prepared with scenario planning.

	==Purpose==		==Purpose==

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Abstract

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	For a construction company to achieve success is it important to have good planning within the business. Most planes are based on predictions of the future, however the future is unknown, complex and changes much faster than in previous times. By developing and using scenario planning, will the company be prepared for the possible range of futures.		For a construction company to achieve success is it important to have good planning within the business. Most planes are based on predictions of the future, however the future is unknown, complex and changes much faster than in previous times. By developing and using scenario planning, will the company be prepared for the possible range of futures.

	Scenarios are alternative futures in which today's decisions may play out. <ref name="basic">Noboru, Konno, Ikujiro, Nonaka, Jay, Ogilvy, "Scenario Planning: the Basics", 2014, http://www.tandfonline.com.proxy.findit.dtu.dk/doi/abs/10.1080/02604027.2014.875720</ref> Scenario planning are complex elements intertwined into a story that is coherent, systematic comprehensive and plausible. The scenarios should not only include visionary stories, but stories that also challenge the organization.<ref name="Ringland2006">Ringland, Gill, Young, Laurie, "Scenario in Marketing: From Vision to Decision", 2006, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com.proxy.findit.dtu.dk/doi/10.1002/9780470666265.ch1/summary;jsessionid=E879888381F2AABB2519BF365DAD1086.f03t02</ref> Scenario planning are used to help the ~~organization~~ to reach the right decisions in the event of different scenarios.		Scenarios are alternative futures in which today's decisions may play out. <ref name="basic">Noboru, Konno, Ikujiro, Nonaka, Jay, Ogilvy, "Scenario Planning: the Basics", 2014, http://www.tandfonline.com.proxy.findit.dtu.dk/doi/abs/10.1080/02604027.2014.875720</ref> Scenario planning are complex elements intertwined into a story that is coherent, systematic comprehensive and plausible. The scenarios should not only include visionary stories, but stories that also challenge the organization.<ref name="Ringland2006">Ringland, Gill, Young, Laurie, "Scenario in Marketing: From Vision to Decision", 2006, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com.proxy.findit.dtu.dk/doi/10.1002/9780470666265.ch1/summary;jsessionid=E879888381F2AABB2519BF365DAD1086.f03t02</ref> Scenario planning are used to help the company to reach the right decisions in the event of different scenarios.

	Scenario planning in businesses and thus construction management are divided into two categories. The first category is used to foresee a future state or condition, which is further used to simulate the choices and actions that may be taken to deal the scenario and the related consequences. The second category assumes that the choices has been established and the consequences are integrated into the story about the future state of the business. The first category simulates the thinking-process, and the second the exploring of the consequences of the choices taken. <ref name="Coates">Coats, Joseph F., "Scenario Planning", page 115-123, 2000, http://production.datastore.cvt.dk/filestore?oid=53a033d1ecd9f0954c085a67&targetid=53a033d1ecd9f0954c085a69 </ref> Further in this article will scenarios be referenced to as a combination of these two categories.		Scenario planning in businesses and thus construction management are divided into two categories. The first category is used to foresee a future state or condition, which is further used to simulate the choices and actions that may be taken to deal the scenario and the related consequences. The second category assumes that the choices has been established and the consequences are integrated into the story about the future state of the business. The first category simulates the thinking-process, and the second the exploring of the consequences of the choices taken. <ref name="Coates">Coats, Joseph F., "Scenario Planning", page 115-123, 2000, http://production.datastore.cvt.dk/filestore?oid=53a033d1ecd9f0954c085a67&targetid=53a033d1ecd9f0954c085a69 </ref> Further in this article will scenarios be referenced to as a combination of these two categories.

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Phase 4 - Reduce the Scenarios and Choose the Most Plausible

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	====Phase 4 - Reduce the Scenarios and Choose the Most Plausible====		====Phase 4 - Reduce the Scenarios and Choose the Most Plausible====
	[[File:processscenario.png\|430px\|thumb\|Illustration of process of scenario building and how you iterate between the processes. The phases is not described in the article and is just for illustration purpose. <ref name=basic />]]		[[File:processscenario.png\|430px\|thumb\|Illustration of process of scenario building and how you iterate between the processes. The phases is not described in the article and are just for illustration purpose. <ref name=basic />]]
	In this phase are you eliminating the scenarios that are irrelevant or questionable. The remaining number of scenarios is varying and dependent on the resources of the company. However, between two and four is mentioned as sufficient to explore the plausible future. <ref name="Godet" />		In this phase are you eliminating the scenarios that are irrelevant or questionable. The remaining number of scenarios is varying and dependent on the resources of the company. However, between two and four is mentioned as sufficient to explore the plausible future. <ref name="Godet" />

S161211: /* How to Use the Tool */

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How to Use the Tool

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	===How to Use the Tool===		===How to Use the Tool===
	In scenario planning are multiple scenarios often used to categorize the range of how the future might evolve. [[File:Timeline.jpg\|430px\|thumb\|The timeline of scenario ~~Planning~~<ref name=Meinert />]] The number of scenarios vary and are dependent on the number of issues that are examined. A good scenario highlights the dynamics of the future event, i.e. how it might go from here to there. Furthermore, presents the scenario an end-state description in addition to a reflection of variety of viewpoints, from both inside the company and outside. The construction company will then get a broader range of the possibilities. <ref name="WhenHow" /> The approach to develop scenarios can be changed dependent on the goals, resources and participating group of stakeholders that are involved in the project. Scenario planning usually consists of an interview phase followed by several workshops and work phases. The scenarios are developed by a team connected to the construction company, with assistance from facilitating teams. Furthermore are the scenarios edited by a smaller team into a final version. <ref name="Meinert" /> Scenarios have a timeline from today and to the mid- or long-term uncertainties in the future.		In scenario planning are multiple scenarios often used to categorize the range of how the future might evolve. [[File:Timeline.jpg\|430px\|thumb\|The timeline of scenario planning<ref name=Meinert />]] The number of scenarios vary and are dependent on the number of issues that are examined. A good scenario highlights the dynamics of the future event, i.e. how it might go from here to there. Furthermore, presents the scenario an end-state description in addition to a reflection of variety of viewpoints, from both inside the company and outside. The construction company will then get a broader range of the possibilities. <ref name="WhenHow" /> The approach to develop scenarios can be changed dependent on the goals, resources and participating group of stakeholders that are involved in the project. Scenario planning usually consists of an interview phase followed by several workshops and work phases. The scenarios are developed by a team connected to the construction company, with assistance from facilitating teams. Furthermore are the scenarios edited by a smaller team into a final version. <ref name="Meinert" /> Scenarios have a timeline from today and to the mid- or long-term uncertainties in the future.

	There have been attempts on shortcuts with only planning the best- and the worst-case scenarios with the actions related to these scenarios. However, the future is not black and white and the limited scenarios are most likely not sufficient. A future-thinking construction manager must plan for several scenarios based on the probable future situations that have been predicted from actual trends. Scenario planning requires however allot of resources and research. <ref name="Isaacs" /> Because of the demanding time and resource might not scenario planning be applicable for small construction firms.		There have been attempts on shortcuts with only planning the best- and the worst-case scenarios with the actions related to these scenarios. However, the future is not black and white and the limited scenarios are most likely not sufficient. A future-thinking construction manager must plan for several scenarios based on the probable future situations that have been predicted from actual trends. Scenario planning requires however allot of resources and research. <ref name="Isaacs" /> Because of the demanding time and resource might not scenario planning be applicable for small construction firms.

	The scenarios should deal with a matter that are important for the construction company, at the same time shall the matter be associated with uncertainty – is it possible to give an answer of the development of the subject in the upcoming years. Moreover, should the company have a certain potential impact on the future. <ref name="Meinert" /> Further elaboration on the process of creating scenarios follows.		The scenarios should deal with a matter that are important for the construction company, at the same time shall the matter be associated with uncertainty – is it possible to give an answer of the development of the subject in the upcoming years. Moreover, should the company have a certain potential impact on the future. <ref name="Meinert" /> Further elaboration on the process of creating scenarios follows.

	===Phases===		===Phases===

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Limitations

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	*Scenario planning are team exercises and it is important that the team members are representative of the organization. There should be a balance between staff personnel, which are confined to supporting the line managers in shaping the scope and focus of the scenario.		*Scenario planning are team exercises and it is important that the team members are representative of the organization. There should be a balance between staff personnel, which are confined to supporting the line managers in shaping the scope and focus of the scenario.
	*The expectations of the scenario must be realistic. An appropriate time frame should be set, both for the scenarios and the time it takes to build them. It often takes time for the organization that the future will not resemble the past, and it might be hard to look far enough into the future.		*The expectations of the scenario must be realistic. An appropriate time frame should be set, both for the scenarios and the time it takes to build them. It often takes time for the organization that the future will not resemble the past, and it might be hard to look far enough into the future.
	*There is a danger in ending up with an odd-number of scenarios, and then especially three. In the case of lack of experience with scenario planning is it often assumed that there is two “extremes” and one “average” when dealing with three scenarios, there are tendencies to go towards the middle and choose the “average”. There is also an underlying danger to assume that there is a “right” answer when dealing with scenario planning. However, the true value of scenario planning ~~are~~ to experience the exploring of a set of plausible futures that could unfold.		*There is a danger in ending up with an odd-number of scenarios, and then especially three. In the case of lack of experience with scenario planning is it often assumed that there is two “extremes” and one “average” when dealing with three scenarios, there are tendencies to go towards the middle and choose the “average”. There is also an underlying danger to assume that there is a “right” answer when dealing with scenario planning. However, the true value of scenario planning is to experience the exploring of a set of plausible futures that could unfold.
	*It is important that the scenario planning ~~are~~ not isolated, it should be resolutely be linked to the existing planning, management and budgeting process of the organization.		*It is important that the scenario planning is not isolated, it should be resolutely being linked to the existing planning, management and budgeting process of the organization.

	==Annotated bibliography==		==Annotated bibliography==

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	Anticipation and scenarios are not synonymous. A scenario is not an end in itself, the scenario only becomes meaningful when its results and implications are embodied in real action.		Anticipation and scenarios are not synonymous. A scenario is not an end in itself, the scenario only becomes meaningful when its results and implications are embodied in real action.

	Scenario planning are time and resource consuming process, the process might take over a year in a large construction company. Like in every process that develops over time, are there a risk for knowledge to be lost by changes of the team members and/or leaders/managers. A future study rarely survives if the initiator leaves the project. <ref name="Godet"> Michel Godet, "The Art of Scenario and Strategic Planning: Tools and Pitfalls", New York, 2000</ref>		Scenario planning are time and resource consuming process, the process might take over a year in a large construction company. Like in every process that develops over time, are there a risk for knowledge to be lost by changes of the team members and/or leaders/managers. A future study rarely survives if the initiator leaves the project. <ref name="Godet"> Michel Godet, "The Art of Scenario and Strategic Planning: Tools and Pitfalls", New York, 2000, http://production.datastore.cvt.dk/filestore?oid=53a033ceecd9f0954c085a4f&targetid=53a033ceecd9f0954c085a51</ref>

	The use of scenarios has been met with mixed results, John S. Ratcliffe in “Scenario Building: A suitable Method for Strategic Construction Industry Planning?” <ref name="Construcind" />, have written some recommendations regarding scenario planning.		The use of scenarios has been met with mixed results, John S. Ratcliffe in “Scenario Building: A suitable Method for Strategic Construction Industry Planning?” <ref name="Construcind" />, have written some recommendations regarding scenario planning.

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History

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	==History==		==History==
	Scenario planning as a device for future planning was developed by Herman Kahn in the 1950’s. Khan was a central part of raising awareness of the US military, which is often referred to as the development of the nuclear war. In the 1970’s had the Royal Dutch Shell remarkable success after applying scenario planning, the company adjusted quickly after the OPEC oil shock in the 1970’s. <ref name="PICMET" /> Shell is to this day, 10.06.17, still using scenario planning to help leaders explore ways forward and make better decisions.<ref name="Shell">Shell Scenarios [Online], Available: http://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios.html , [Accessed 10 June 2017] </ref> It was also during the 1970’s that the consulting firm SRI International formulated a structural approach to scenario planning. <ref name="Construcind" /> Moreover, it was with the report “The Limits of Growth to the Club of Rome” that scenario approach first entered the public’s awareness in 1972.<ref name="Meinert"> Sascha, Meinert, "Scenario Building", European Trade Union Institute, 2014</ref>		Scenario planning as a device for future planning was developed by Herman Kahn in the 1950’s. Khan was a central part of raising awareness of the US military, which is often referred to as the development of the nuclear war. In the 1970’s had the Royal Dutch Shell remarkable success after applying scenario planning, the company adjusted quickly after the OPEC oil shock in the 1970’s. <ref name="PICMET" /> Shell is to this day, 10.06.17, still using scenario planning to help leaders explore ways forward and make better decisions.<ref name="Shell">Shell Scenarios [Online], Available: http://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios.html , [Accessed 10 June 2017] </ref> It was also during the 1970’s that the consulting firm SRI International formulated a structural approach to scenario planning. <ref name="Construcind" /> Moreover, it was with the report “The Limits of Growth to the Club of Rome” that scenario approach first entered the public’s awareness in 1972.<ref name="Meinert"> Sascha, Meinert, "Scenario Building", European Trade Union Institute, 2014, http://www.etui.org/Publications2/Guides/Field-manual-Scenario-building</ref>


	==Application==		==Application==

S161211: /* Annotated bibliography */

2017-06-21T09:06:31Z

Annotated bibliography

S161211 at 09:05, 21 June 2017

2017-06-21T09:05:12Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 09:05, 21 June 2017
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	For a construction company to achieve success is it important to have good planning within the business. Most planes are based on predictions of the future, however the future is unknown, complex and changes much faster than in previous times. By developing and using scenario planning, will the company be prepared for the possible range of futures.		For a construction company to achieve success is it important to have good planning within the business. Most planes are based on predictions of the future, however the future is unknown, complex and changes much faster than in previous times. By developing and using scenario planning, will the company be prepared for the possible range of futures.

	Scenarios are alternative futures in which today's decisions may play out. <ref name="basic">Noboru, Konno, Ikujiro, Nonaka, Jay, Ogilvy, "Scenario Planning: the Basics", 2014, http://www.tandfonline.com.proxy.findit.dtu.dk/doi/abs/10.1080/02604027.2014.875720</ref> Scenario planning are complex elements intertwined into a story that is coherent, systematic comprehensive and plausible. The scenarios should not only include visionary stories, but stories that also challenge the organization.<ref name="Ringland2006">Ringland, Gill, Young, Laurie, "Scenario in Marketing: From Vision to Decision", 2006</ref> Scenario planning are used to help the organization to reach the right decisions in the event of different scenarios.		Scenarios are alternative futures in which today's decisions may play out. <ref name="basic">Noboru, Konno, Ikujiro, Nonaka, Jay, Ogilvy, "Scenario Planning: the Basics", 2014, http://www.tandfonline.com.proxy.findit.dtu.dk/doi/abs/10.1080/02604027.2014.875720</ref> Scenario planning are complex elements intertwined into a story that is coherent, systematic comprehensive and plausible. The scenarios should not only include visionary stories, but stories that also challenge the organization.<ref name="Ringland2006">Ringland, Gill, Young, Laurie, "Scenario in Marketing: From Vision to Decision", 2006, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com.proxy.findit.dtu.dk/doi/10.1002/9780470666265.ch1/summary;jsessionid=E879888381F2AABB2519BF365DAD1086.f03t02</ref> Scenario planning are used to help the organization to reach the right decisions in the event of different scenarios.

	Scenario planning in businesses and thus construction management are divided into two categories. The first category is used to foresee a future state or condition, which is further used to simulate the choices and actions that may be taken to deal the scenario and the related consequences. The second category assumes that the choices has been established and the consequences are integrated into the story about the future state of the business. The first category simulates the thinking-process, and the second the exploring of the consequences of the choices taken. <ref name="Coates">Coats, Joseph F., "Scenario Planning", page 115-123, 2000, http://production.datastore.cvt.dk/filestore?oid=53a033d1ecd9f0954c085a67&targetid=53a033d1ecd9f0954c085a69 </ref> Further in this article will scenarios be referenced to as a combination of these two categories.		Scenario planning in businesses and thus construction management are divided into two categories. The first category is used to foresee a future state or condition, which is further used to simulate the choices and actions that may be taken to deal the scenario and the related consequences. The second category assumes that the choices has been established and the consequences are integrated into the story about the future state of the business. The first category simulates the thinking-process, and the second the exploring of the consequences of the choices taken. <ref name="Coates">Coats, Joseph F., "Scenario Planning", page 115-123, 2000, http://production.datastore.cvt.dk/filestore?oid=53a033d1ecd9f0954c085a67&targetid=53a033d1ecd9f0954c085a69 </ref> Further in this article will scenarios be referenced to as a combination of these two categories.

	Scenario planning was developed in the 1950’s by Herman Kahn, <ref name="PICMET"> Schumacher, "Constructing Vision with Scenario Planning", 2012 Proceedings of PICMET '12: Technology Management for Emerging Technologies, page 122-132, 2012</ref> and even though the tool is hard to establish when to be used, is “uncertainty” a common denominator. When choosing to applying scenario planning is it common to follow some common characteristics and elements divided into six phases. The number of scenarios is varying, however there is a danger in developing three scenarios. The common perception is to choose the middle-scenario, the “average”.		Scenario planning was developed in the 1950’s by Herman Kahn, <ref name="PICMET"> Schumacher, "Constructing Vision with Scenario Planning", 2012 Proceedings of PICMET '12: Technology Management for Emerging Technologies, page 122-132, 2012, http://ieeexplore.ieee.org.proxy.findit.dtu.dk/document/6304030/</ref> and even though the tool is hard to establish when to be used, is “uncertainty” a common denominator. When choosing to applying scenario planning is it common to follow some common characteristics and elements divided into six phases. The number of scenarios is varying, however there is a danger in developing three scenarios. The common perception is to choose the middle-scenario, the “average”.

	Scenario planning has become a popular tool for businesses. Even though we do not know how the future will look like, we know that it will not look like the past or today, however, you can be involved in how it will unfold. As a business globalizes will the business, sometime in the future, be in the position where it must deal with costumers, regulators, culture, economic factors, etc. <ref name="Coates" /> Moreover, whichever scenario that become reality, will the business be more prepared with scenario planning.		Scenario planning has become a popular tool for businesses. Even though we do not know how the future will look like, we know that it will not look like the past or today, however, you can be involved in how it will unfold. As a business globalizes will the business, sometime in the future, be in the position where it must deal with costumers, regulators, culture, economic factors, etc. <ref name="Coates" /> Moreover, whichever scenario that become reality, will the business be more prepared with scenario planning.

	==Purpose==		==Purpose==
	The primary purpose of scenario planning is to enable the construction manager to detect and explore, as many as possible, alternative futures to clarify the present actions and related consequences. The scenarios will inform and influence the manager. Fahey and Randall 1998 suggest that the purpose of scenario planning is to help seeing the potential future, how it might come about and why is it happening, and thus enlarging the understanding. <ref name="Fahey">Fahey, L., Randall, R.M., "Learning from the Future - Competitive Foresight Scenarios", New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1998</ref> It will additionally explore how the organization might react if curtain circumstances occur, and thus identify the liable decisions. <ref name="Construcind">Ratcliffe, J. S., "Scenario Building: A Suitable Method for Strategic Construction Industy Planning?", Chicago, 2009</ref>		The primary purpose of scenario planning is to enable the construction manager to detect and explore, as many as possible, alternative futures to clarify the present actions and related consequences. The scenarios will inform and influence the manager. Fahey and Randall 1998 suggest that the purpose of scenario planning is to help seeing the potential future, how it might come about and why is it happening, and thus enlarging the understanding. <ref name="Fahey">Fahey, L., Randall, R.M., "Learning from the Future - Competitive Foresight Scenarios", New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1998, http://documents.irevues.inist.fr/handle/2042/30148</ref> It will additionally explore how the organization might react if curtain circumstances occur, and thus identify the liable decisions. <ref name="Construcind">Ratcliffe, John, S., "Scenario Building: A Suitable Method for Strategic Construction Industy Planning?", Chicago, 2009, http://www.emeraldinsight.com.proxy.findit.dtu.dk/doi/full/10.1108/02637470010328322</ref>

	==History==		==History==
	Scenario planning as a device for future planning was developed by Herman Kahn in the 1950’s. Khan was a central part of raising awareness of the US military, which is often referred to as the development of the nuclear war. In the 1970’s had the Royal Dutch Shell remarkable success after applying scenario planning, the company adjusted quickly after the OPEC oil shock in the 1970’s. <ref name="PICMET"~~> Schumacher, "Constructing Vision with Scenario Planning", 2012 Proceedings of PICMET '12: Technology Management for Emerging Technologies, page 122-132, 2012<~~/~~ref~~> Shell is to this day, 10.06.17, still using scenario planning to help leaders explore ways forward and make better decisions.<ref name="Shell">Shell Scenarios [Online], Available: http://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios.html , [Accessed 10 June 2017] </ref> It was also during the 1970’s that the consulting firm SRI International formulated a structural approach to scenario planning. <ref name="Construcind" /> Moreover, it was with the report “The Limits of Growth to the Club of Rome” that scenario approach first entered the public’s awareness in 1972.<ref name="Meinert"> Sascha, Meinert, "Scenario Building", European Trade Union Institute, 2014</ref>		Scenario planning as a device for future planning was developed by Herman Kahn in the 1950’s. Khan was a central part of raising awareness of the US military, which is often referred to as the development of the nuclear war. In the 1970’s had the Royal Dutch Shell remarkable success after applying scenario planning, the company adjusted quickly after the OPEC oil shock in the 1970’s. <ref name="PICMET" /> Shell is to this day, 10.06.17, still using scenario planning to help leaders explore ways forward and make better decisions.<ref name="Shell">Shell Scenarios [Online], Available: http://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios.html , [Accessed 10 June 2017] </ref> It was also during the 1970’s that the consulting firm SRI International formulated a structural approach to scenario planning. <ref name="Construcind" /> Moreover, it was with the report “The Limits of Growth to the Club of Rome” that scenario approach first entered the public’s awareness in 1972.<ref name="Meinert"> Sascha, Meinert, "Scenario Building", European Trade Union Institute, 2014</ref>

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	==Annotated bibliography==		==Annotated bibliography==
	''When and How to Use Scenario Planning: A Heuristic Approach with Illustration,In Journal of Forecasting, Paul J. H. Schoemaker, 1991''		'''When and How to Use Scenario Planning: A Heuristic Approach with Illustration,In Journal of Forecasting, Paul J. H. Schoemaker, 1991'''
	The paper offers a step-by-step analysis of scenario planning, with description of what scenario planning aim to achieve. Schoemaker gives examples of situations when applying scenario planning is appropriate. The paper also gives an example of a case involving a manufacturing company to view the process.		The paper offers a step-by-step analysis of scenario planning, with description of what scenario planning aim to achieve. Schoemaker gives examples of situations when applying scenario planning is appropriate. The paper also gives an example of a case involving a manufacturing company to view the process.

	''Scenario building, European Trade Union Institute, Sascha Meinert, 2014''		'''Scenario building, European Trade Union Institute, Sascha Meinert, 2014'''
	The manual gives a comprehensive description of what scenario planning is and how the company applying the tool should use it. The manual gives several examples within the text to achieve a deeper understanding. Meinert describes and go through the phases of scenario planning thoroughly, with illustrations for a deeper explanation. The manual also gives an example of the time schedule of a scenario project in the appendix.		The manual gives a comprehensive description of what scenario planning is and how the company applying the tool should use it. The manual gives several examples within the text to achieve a deeper understanding. Meinert describes and go through the phases of scenario planning thoroughly, with illustrations for a deeper explanation. The manual also gives an example of the time schedule of a scenario project in the appendix.

	''The Art of Scenario and Strategic Planning: Tools and Pitfalls, Michel Godet, 2000''		'''The Art of Scenario and Strategic Planning: Tools and Pitfalls, Michel Godet, 2000'''
	The paper gives a good description of scenario planning and how to develop scenarios. Godet describe the phases, with additional illustrations on how the scenarios as developed and how they iterate. There are several examples of how scenario planning has been used. Godet also provides an integrated schema of strategic prospective.		The paper gives a good description of scenario planning and how to develop scenarios. Godet describe the phases, with additional illustrations on how the scenarios as developed and how they iterate. There are several examples of how scenario planning has been used. Godet also provides an integrated schema of strategic prospective.

	''Scenario Building: A Suitable Method for Strategic Construction Industry Planning?, John S. Ratcliffe, 2009''		'''Scenario Building: A Suitable Method for Strategic Construction Industry Planning?, John S. Ratcliffe, 2009'''
	The paper is mainly about the scenario method. Ratcliffe go through how to build the scenario and how planning can be used to identify and test scenarios for strategic decision-making in the construction industry. The practice, principles and pitfalls of scenario planning is also explored in the paper. Ratcliffe use scenario planning to identify some of the drivers that Ireland is confronted with.		The paper is mainly about the scenario method. Ratcliffe go through how to build the scenario and how planning can be used to identify and test scenarios for strategic decision-making in the construction industry. The practice, principles and pitfalls of scenario planning is also explored in the paper. Ratcliffe use scenario planning to identify some of the drivers that Ireland is confronted with.

	''Scenario Planning, Joseph F. Coates, 2000''		'''Scenario Planning, Joseph F. Coates, 2000'''
	The paper goes through the introduction of scenario planning in the 1950’s, and why scenario planning has a great value. Coates goes through how to create scenarios thoroughly, in addition to have several examples throughout the text. Coates go through shells great success by using scenario planning, as they are the best known creators of scenarios according to the paper.		The paper goes through the introduction of scenario planning in the 1950’s, and why scenario planning has a great value. Coates goes through how to create scenarios thoroughly, in addition to have several examples throughout the text. Coates go through shells great success by using scenario planning, as they are the best known creators of scenarios according to the paper.


	==References==		==References==
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