Scenario Analysis - Revision history

Tkokotas at 18:41, 17 November 2018

2018-11-17T18:41:11Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 18:41, 17 November 2018
Line 1:		Line 1:
			''Developed by Michael Kirkeby Hansen''

	[[Category:Planning]]		[[Category:Planning]]

Tkokotas at 20:19, 23 October 2018

2018-10-23T20:19:58Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 20:19, 23 October 2018
Line 1:		Line 1:
	[[Category:~~Scenario Analysis]][[Category:Scenario~~ Planning]]		[[Category:Planning]]

	{{#ev:youtube\|https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVgxZnRT54E\|350\|right\| Introduction to Scenario Planning <ref name="caplice"/><ref name=boasson>Boasson, Y., (2004), “An Evaluation of Scenario Planning for Supply Chain design”, Massachusetts Institute of Technology [ONLINE] available at: http://ctl.mit.edu/sites/ctl.mit.edu/files/library/public/theses_2004_Boasson__execsumm.pdf</ref>\|frame}}		{{#ev:youtube\|https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVgxZnRT54E\|350\|right\| Introduction to Scenario Planning <ref name="caplice"/><ref name=boasson>Boasson, Y., (2004), “An Evaluation of Scenario Planning for Supply Chain design”, Massachusetts Institute of Technology [ONLINE] available at: http://ctl.mit.edu/sites/ctl.mit.edu/files/library/public/theses_2004_Boasson__execsumm.pdf</ref>\|frame}}

Mikirkeby at 20:23, 2 October 2017

2017-10-02T20:23:40Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 20:23, 2 October 2017
Line 6:		Line 6:
	It is in the same instance that scenario planning becomes most valuable, enabling organisations to prepare for whatever the future might bring, thus not merely offering a better chance of surviving potential dramatic changes by mitigating risks, but in some cases also take advantage of said changes.		It is in the same instance that scenario planning becomes most valuable, enabling organisations to prepare for whatever the future might bring, thus not merely offering a better chance of surviving potential dramatic changes by mitigating risks, but in some cases also take advantage of said changes.
	Managing projects, programmes, or portfolios, scenario planning aids preparing the best strategy, making contingency plans or even just reflect on how the environment will look in the future.		Managing projects, programmes, or portfolios, scenario planning aids preparing the best strategy, making contingency plans or even just reflect on how the environment will look in the future.
	This article will look into how scenario planning has become an essential tool, how to apply it in practice taking starting point in the generic scenario planning model, and discuss how to succeed and what to be cautious about.		This article will look into how scenario planning has become an essential tool, how to apply it in practice taking starting point in the generic scenario planning model, and discuss how to succeed practicing the tool and what to be cautious about.

	== Big Idea ==		== Big Idea ==
Line 13:		Line 13:
	</ref> Thus, it will help putting the process at hand into perspective, and enable to set success criteria for the future instead of now <ref name="tonn">Tonnquist, B. (2009). Project management: a complete guide. København: Hans Reitzels Forlag</ref>.		</ref> Thus, it will help putting the process at hand into perspective, and enable to set success criteria for the future instead of now <ref name="tonn">Tonnquist, B. (2009). Project management: a complete guide. København: Hans Reitzels Forlag</ref>.
	The usage of scenario planning grew in the seventies as the dramatic volatility of the oil prices woke up organisations that have lived off forecasts since the forties (an unusually smooth economic period) along with a growing belief in the non-rational side of human nature.		The usage of scenario planning grew in the seventies as the dramatic volatility of the oil prices woke up organisations that have lived off forecasts since the forties (an unusually smooth economic period) along with a growing belief in the non-rational side of human nature.
	The attractiveness of the method increased further to 70 % of companies using it in the aftermath of the 9/11 and the unstable global view. It is supposedly even due to scenario planning performed by New York Board of Trade in the late nineties, that a third trading floor was established a few years before ~~the 2001 terrorist attack~~, ensuring that the world trade could keep going after the attack. <ref name="Hindle">Hindle, T., (2008), “Scenario Planning”, The Economist, [ONLINE] available at: http://www.economist.com/node/12000755</ref>		The attractiveness of the method increased further to 70% of companies using it in the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attack in 2001 and the unstable global view. It is supposedly even due to scenario planning performed by New York Board of Trade in the late nineties, that a third trading floor was established a few years before 9/11, ensuring that the world trade could keep going after the attack. <ref name="Hindle">Hindle, T., (2008), “Scenario Planning”, The Economist, [ONLINE] available at: http://www.economist.com/node/12000755</ref>

	Scenario planning should not be mistaken for forecasts. It differs from forecasting since it creates multiple plausible futures, forecasts focus on the one most probable.		Scenario planning should not be mistaken for forecasts. It differs from forecasting since it creates multiple plausible futures, forecasts focus on the one most probable.
Line 46:		Line 46:
	#:The initial activity is to examine internal and external factors to determine whether scenario planning is an appropriate tool. This includes establishing if the organisation culture is equipped to make use of it; if the uncertainty level is adequate; if a suitable long-term time perspective is defined; and if senior management supports the use. Other factors, such as organisational structure, costs, and industry dynamics also play a role.		#:The initial activity is to examine internal and external factors to determine whether scenario planning is an appropriate tool. This includes establishing if the organisation culture is equipped to make use of it; if the uncertainty level is adequate; if a suitable long-term time perspective is defined; and if senior management supports the use. Other factors, such as organisational structure, costs, and industry dynamics also play a role.
	# '''Team Composition''':		# '''Team Composition''':
	#:The team composition of the team executing the scenario planning is critical in order to ~~return~~ capable, realistic scenarios with a wide range of insights and considerations. Teams should consist of participants with different backgrounds, culturally as well as intellectually, key decision makers, employees at different levels and expertise within the organisation, and external professionals from the industry. Furthermore, unorthodox and challenging thinkers should be included to make the execution successful.		#:The team composition of the team executing the scenario planning is critical in order to generate capable, realistic scenarios with a wide range of insights and considerations. Teams should consist of participants with different backgrounds, culturally as well as intellectually, key decision makers, employees at different levels and expertise within the organisation, and external professionals from the industry. Furthermore, unorthodox and challenging thinkers should be included to make the execution successful.
	#'''Scenario Building''':		#'''Scenario Building''':
	#:There are different approaches on how to build scenarios. They all agree on the first step being defining the issue at hand by systematically identify relevant stakeholders, trends, constraints, and so forth. Hereafter, there are several different approaches, which should be combined as found suitable by the team. One approach suggests that the starting point is taken by plotting the scenario drivers, and deriving all possible combinations from them; another proposes the initial construction of two extreme scenarios, a positive and a negative; while a third suggests that the most probable scenario should be chosen as the base case for the future, to have something to take starting point in.[[File:quantitative.png\|thumb\|upright=2.5\|Figure 3 - Use of quantitative and qualitative description depending on time scope<ref name="amer"/>]]		#:There are different approaches on how to build scenarios. They all agree on the first step being defining the issue at hand by systematically identify relevant stakeholders, trends, constraints, and so forth. Hereafter, there are several different approaches, which should be combined as found suitable by the team. One approach suggests that the starting point is taken by plotting the scenario drivers, and deriving all possible combinations from them; another proposes the initial construction of two extreme scenarios, a positive and a negative; while a third suggests that the most probable scenario should be chosen as the base case for the future, to have something to take starting point in.[[File:quantitative.png\|thumb\|upright=2.5\|Figure 3 - Use of quantitative and qualitative description depending on time scope<ref name="amer"/>]]
Line 58:		Line 58:
	#:Once the scenarios have been built, they should be evaluated and tested. Depending on the situation and use of scenario planning, one way test and prioritise scenarios is using Wilsons Matrix, similar to a risk matrix, mapping the importance on probability and impact (Figure 4).		#:Once the scenarios have been built, they should be evaluated and tested. Depending on the situation and use of scenario planning, one way test and prioritise scenarios is using Wilsons Matrix, similar to a risk matrix, mapping the importance on probability and impact (Figure 4).
	#:Once again, no single effective model is accepted within the field. If a more structured approach to scenario building is desired, “Schoemaker’s 10-Step Scenario Building Model” from 1993 is a usual suggestion. <ref name="Keough"/>		#:Once again, no single effective model is accepted within the field. If a more structured approach to scenario building is desired, “Schoemaker’s 10-Step Scenario Building Model” from 1993 is a usual suggestion. <ref name="Keough"/>
	#:~~Four~~ scenario archetypes include:		#:According to Amer, four scenario archetypes include:
	#:*Continued growth: Current conditions and trends are enhanced		#:*Continued growth: Current conditions and trends are enhanced
	#:*Collapse: Continued growth fails and is followed by contradictions		#:*Collapse: Continued growth fails and is followed by contradictions
Line 65:		Line 65:
	#'''Decision Process''':		#'''Decision Process''':
	#:After building and evaluating the scenarios, they should be presented to a key decision maker, who is able to take action on the information provided. The decision maker could have been part of the team (as previously mentioned, this aid gaining the readiness required to plan for the future), however the involvement of key decision makers in phase 3 should not be mistaken. Organisational leaders need to sit down and properly review the outcome of the scenario construction and evaluation.		#:After building and evaluating the scenarios, they should be presented to a key decision maker, who is able to take action on the information provided. The decision maker could have been part of the team (as previously mentioned, this aid gaining the readiness required to plan for the future), however the involvement of key decision makers in phase 3 should not be mistaken. Organisational leaders need to sit down and properly review the outcome of the scenario construction and evaluation.
	#:Assuming the scenarios are presented in an according manner to the receiver, scenario planning will reduce bounded rationality and information stickiness, and increase knowledge friction~~, making~~ the decision maker more susceptible to considering options outside conventional scope, as well as bring empowerment through knowledge sharing to the rest of the team.		#:Assuming the scenarios are presented in an according manner to the receiver, scenario planning will reduce bounded rationality and information stickiness, and increase knowledge friction. This will make the decision maker more susceptible to considering options outside conventional scope, as well as bring empowerment through knowledge sharing to the rest of the team.
	#:At least four scenarios should be included in the final presentation, since people tend to go with the middle or ‘average’ scenario if three is presented, and two is simply too few. <ref name="roxburgh"/>[[File:Wilson.png\|thumb\|upright=2.3\|Figure 4 - Wilson's prioritisation matrix<ref name="amer"/>]]		#:At least four scenarios should be included in the final presentation, since people tend to go with the middle or ‘average’ scenario if three is presented, and two is simply too few. <ref name="roxburgh"/>[[File:Wilson.png\|thumb\|upright=2.3\|Figure 4 - Wilson's prioritisation matrix<ref name="amer"/>]]
	#'''Increased Performance''':		#'''Increased Performance''':
Line 85:		Line 85:


	A brief example of how Shell changed their key decisions based on scenarios is when high priority scenarios were saying that they had a higher price outlook concerning integrated gas in their oil and gas portfolio. Thus, in 2004, they invested in integrated gas becoming 40-45% of total production in 2014. <ref name="shell">Cornelius, P., Van De Putte, A., and Romani, M., (2005) “Three Decades of Scenario Planning in Shell.” California Management Review 48 (1)</ref> In 2014, Shell claimed that their integrated gas earnings ~~has~~ tripled since 2010 to $10 billion, or 45% of their total earnings. It should be noted that 45% production and 45% earnings are not equal, but the aim with this article is not to question the numbers or analyse whether Shell could have done better with a different strategy, but merely serve as an example of how driver identification in scenario planning can become quite valuable. <ref name="shell2">Royal Dutch Shell plc, (2014), "Investors' Handbook", [ONLINE] available at: http://reports.shell.com/investors-handbook/2014/servicepages/filelibrary/files/collection.php?cat=b</ref>		A brief example of how Shell changed their key decisions based on scenarios is when high priority scenarios were saying that they had a higher price outlook concerning integrated gas in their oil and gas portfolio. Thus, in 2004, they invested in integrated gas becoming 40-45% of total production in 2014. <ref name="shell">Cornelius, P., Van De Putte, A., and Romani, M., (2005) “Three Decades of Scenario Planning in Shell.” California Management Review 48 (1)</ref> In 2014, Shell claimed that their integrated gas earnings have tripled since 2010 to $10 billion, or 45% of their total earnings. It should be noted that 45% production and 45% earnings are not equal, but the aim with this article is not to question the numbers or analyse whether Shell could have done better with a different strategy, but merely serve as an example of how driver identification in scenario planning can become quite valuable. <ref name="shell2">Royal Dutch Shell plc, (2014), "Investors' Handbook", [ONLINE] available at: http://reports.shell.com/investors-handbook/2014/servicepages/filelibrary/files/collection.php?cat=b</ref>

	Today, Royal Dutch Shell plc are publishing reports within chosen areas, concerning their scenario planning methods and outcomes. For instance, in 2017 they published their World Energy Model. In this, various advice on how to model scenarios is given. Furthermore, a number of different scenarios on how energy consumption could change over the years is provided. The publication has only little description of the final scenarios provided and no advice on how to utilise them. Nonetheless, this paper manifest Royal Dutch Shell as pioneers within scenario planning, and is at the same time one of the better applied examples available to unexperienced practitioners on how to take on scenario planning, especially on how to construct scenarios. <ref name="shell WEM">Thomas, W., (2012) "SHELL WORLD ENERGY MODEL - A VIEW TO 2100" [ONLINE] Available at: http://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios/shell-scenarios-energy-models/world-energy-model/_jcr_content/par/textimage.stream/1505374418376/90a713323e713b5064921658dc9353c724dd6bdc95bc466fac35a5233fcf4ced/shell-world-energy-model-fo.pdf</ref>		Today, Royal Dutch Shell plc are publishing reports within chosen areas, concerning their scenario planning methods and outcomes. For instance, in 2017 they published their World Energy Model. In this, various advice on how to model scenarios is given. Furthermore, a number of different scenarios on how energy consumption could change over the years is provided. The publication has only little description of the final scenarios provided and no advice on how to utilise them. Nonetheless, this paper manifest Royal Dutch Shell as pioneers within scenario planning, and is at the same time one of the better applied examples available to unexperienced practitioners on how to take on scenario planning, especially on how to construct scenarios. <ref name="shell WEM">Thomas, W., (2012) "SHELL WORLD ENERGY MODEL - A VIEW TO 2100" [ONLINE] Available at: http://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios/shell-scenarios-energy-models/world-energy-model/_jcr_content/par/textimage.stream/1505374418376/90a713323e713b5064921658dc9353c724dd6bdc95bc466fac35a5233fcf4ced/shell-world-energy-model-fo.pdf</ref>

Mikirkeby: /* Royal Dutch Shell Case */

2017-10-02T15:32:08Z

Royal Dutch Shell Case

← Older revision		Revision as of 15:32, 2 October 2017
Line 78:		Line 78:
	===''Royal Dutch Shell'' Case===		===''Royal Dutch Shell'' Case===
	It is widely known, that Royal Dutch Shell plc was one of the first organisations to adapt scenario planning in a fully valuable way, that would become an important step towards todays usage. <ref name="roxburgh"/>		It is widely known, that Royal Dutch Shell plc was one of the first organisations to adapt scenario planning in a fully valuable way, that would become an important step towards todays usage. <ref name="roxburgh"/>
	Shell developed it from a largely internal and market specific exercise into the broadly interdisciplinary methodology with scenarios build on macro environments it is today. An outline of this development since they first undertook the practice of scenario planning in the seventies, can be seen ~~below~~:		Shell developed it from a largely internal and market specific exercise into the broadly interdisciplinary methodology with scenarios build on macro environments it is today. An outline of this development since they first undertook the practice of scenario planning in the seventies, can be seen subsequently:

	[[File:timeline.png\|700px]]		[[File:timeline.png\|700px]]

Mikirkeby: /* Royal Dutch Shell Case */

2017-10-02T14:32:09Z

Royal Dutch Shell Case

← Older revision		Revision as of 14:32, 2 October 2017
Line 87:		Line 87:
	A brief example of how Shell changed their key decisions based on scenarios is when high priority scenarios were saying that they had a higher price outlook concerning integrated gas in their oil and gas portfolio. Thus, in 2004, they invested in integrated gas becoming 40-45% of total production in 2014. <ref name="shell">Cornelius, P., Van De Putte, A., and Romani, M., (2005) “Three Decades of Scenario Planning in Shell.” California Management Review 48 (1)</ref> In 2014, Shell claimed that their integrated gas earnings has tripled since 2010 to $10 billion, or 45% of their total earnings. It should be noted that 45% production and 45% earnings are not equal, but the aim with this article is not to question the numbers or analyse whether Shell could have done better with a different strategy, but merely serve as an example of how driver identification in scenario planning can become quite valuable. <ref name="shell2">Royal Dutch Shell plc, (2014), "Investors' Handbook", [ONLINE] available at: http://reports.shell.com/investors-handbook/2014/servicepages/filelibrary/files/collection.php?cat=b</ref>		A brief example of how Shell changed their key decisions based on scenarios is when high priority scenarios were saying that they had a higher price outlook concerning integrated gas in their oil and gas portfolio. Thus, in 2004, they invested in integrated gas becoming 40-45% of total production in 2014. <ref name="shell">Cornelius, P., Van De Putte, A., and Romani, M., (2005) “Three Decades of Scenario Planning in Shell.” California Management Review 48 (1)</ref> In 2014, Shell claimed that their integrated gas earnings has tripled since 2010 to $10 billion, or 45% of their total earnings. It should be noted that 45% production and 45% earnings are not equal, but the aim with this article is not to question the numbers or analyse whether Shell could have done better with a different strategy, but merely serve as an example of how driver identification in scenario planning can become quite valuable. <ref name="shell2">Royal Dutch Shell plc, (2014), "Investors' Handbook", [ONLINE] available at: http://reports.shell.com/investors-handbook/2014/servicepages/filelibrary/files/collection.php?cat=b</ref>

	Today, Royal Dutch Shell plc are publishing reports within chosen areas, concerning their scenario planning methods and outcomes. For instance, in 2017 they published their World ~~Energi~~ Model. In this, various advice on how to model scenarios is given. Furthermore, a number of different scenarios on how energy consumption could change over the years is provided. The publication has only little description of the final scenarios provided and no advice on how to utilise them. Nonetheless, this paper manifest Royal Dutch Shell as pioneers within scenario planning, and is at the same time one of the better applied examples available to unexperienced practitioners on how to take on scenario planning, especially on how to construct scenarios. <ref name="shell WEM">Thomas, W., (2012) "SHELL WORLD ENERGY MODEL - A VIEW TO 2100" [ONLINE] Available at: http://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios/shell-scenarios-energy-models/world-energy-model/_jcr_content/par/textimage.stream/1505374418376/90a713323e713b5064921658dc9353c724dd6bdc95bc466fac35a5233fcf4ced/shell-world-energy-model-fo.pdf</ref>		Today, Royal Dutch Shell plc are publishing reports within chosen areas, concerning their scenario planning methods and outcomes. For instance, in 2017 they published their World Energy Model. In this, various advice on how to model scenarios is given. Furthermore, a number of different scenarios on how energy consumption could change over the years is provided. The publication has only little description of the final scenarios provided and no advice on how to utilise them. Nonetheless, this paper manifest Royal Dutch Shell as pioneers within scenario planning, and is at the same time one of the better applied examples available to unexperienced practitioners on how to take on scenario planning, especially on how to construct scenarios. <ref name="shell WEM">Thomas, W., (2012) "SHELL WORLD ENERGY MODEL - A VIEW TO 2100" [ONLINE] Available at: http://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios/shell-scenarios-energy-models/world-energy-model/_jcr_content/par/textimage.stream/1505374418376/90a713323e713b5064921658dc9353c724dd6bdc95bc466fac35a5233fcf4ced/shell-world-energy-model-fo.pdf</ref>

	== Limitations ==		== Limitations ==

Mikirkeby: /* Royal Dutch Shell Case */

2017-10-02T14:31:55Z

Royal Dutch Shell Case

← Older revision		Revision as of 14:31, 2 October 2017
Line 82:		Line 82:
	[[File:timeline.png\|700px]]		[[File:timeline.png\|700px]]

	[[File:funnel.png\|thumb\|upright=3.0\|Figure 5 - ~~Disciplines making up~~ scenarios<ref name="shell"/>]] As can be seen, Shell is now using scenario analysis to develop business initiatives and check strategy robustness. This is done by choosing the high priority scenarios, and figure out how to increase performance in the future based on these, while keeping in mind that it concerning uncertainty. Shell's customer value propositions can thereby be derived from the scenarios build on the surrounding macro environmental developments. Figure 5 is a visualisation of how the outward funnel that is scenario creation (see figure 1) is then synthesised into Shell's company strategy.		[[File:funnel.png\|thumb\|upright=3.0\|Figure 5 - Turning scenarios into CVPs and strategy<ref name="shell"/>]] As can be seen, Shell is now using scenario analysis to develop business initiatives and check strategy robustness. This is done by choosing the high priority scenarios, and figure out how to increase performance in the future based on these, while keeping in mind that it concerning uncertainty. Shell's customer value propositions can thereby be derived from the scenarios build on the surrounding macro environmental developments. Figure 5 is a visualisation of how the outward funnel that is scenario creation (see figure 1) is then synthesised into Shell's company strategy.

Mikirkeby at 14:29, 2 October 2017

2017-10-02T14:29:43Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 14:29, 2 October 2017
Line 46:		Line 46:
	#:The initial activity is to examine internal and external factors to determine whether scenario planning is an appropriate tool. This includes establishing if the organisation culture is equipped to make use of it; if the uncertainty level is adequate; if a suitable long-term time perspective is defined; and if senior management supports the use. Other factors, such as organisational structure, costs, and industry dynamics also play a role.		#:The initial activity is to examine internal and external factors to determine whether scenario planning is an appropriate tool. This includes establishing if the organisation culture is equipped to make use of it; if the uncertainty level is adequate; if a suitable long-term time perspective is defined; and if senior management supports the use. Other factors, such as organisational structure, costs, and industry dynamics also play a role.
	# '''Team Composition''':		# '''Team Composition''':
	#:The team composition of the team executing the scenario planning is critical in order to return capable, realistic scenarios with a wide range of insights and considerations. Teams should consist of participants with different backgrounds, culturally as well as intellectually, key decision makers, employees at different levels and ~~expertises~~ within the organisation, and external professionals from the industry. Furthermore, unorthodox and challenging thinkers should be included to make the execution successful.		#:The team composition of the team executing the scenario planning is critical in order to return capable, realistic scenarios with a wide range of insights and considerations. Teams should consist of participants with different backgrounds, culturally as well as intellectually, key decision makers, employees at different levels and expertise within the organisation, and external professionals from the industry. Furthermore, unorthodox and challenging thinkers should be included to make the execution successful.
	#'''Scenario Building''':		#'''Scenario Building''':
	#:There are different approaches on how to build scenarios. They all agree on the first step being defining the issue at hand by systematically identify relevant stakeholders, trends, constraints, and so forth. Hereafter, there are several different approaches, which should be combined as found suitable by the team. One approach suggests that the starting point is taken by plotting the scenario drivers, and deriving all possible combinations from them; another proposes the initial construction of two extreme scenarios, a positive and a negative; while a third suggests that the most probable scenario should be chosen as the base case for the future, to have something to take starting point in.[[File:quantitative.png\|thumb\|upright=2.5\|Figure 3 - Use of quantitative and qualitative description depending on time scope<ref name="amer"/>]]		#:There are different approaches on how to build scenarios. They all agree on the first step being defining the issue at hand by systematically identify relevant stakeholders, trends, constraints, and so forth. Hereafter, there are several different approaches, which should be combined as found suitable by the team. One approach suggests that the starting point is taken by plotting the scenario drivers, and deriving all possible combinations from them; another proposes the initial construction of two extreme scenarios, a positive and a negative; while a third suggests that the most probable scenario should be chosen as the base case for the future, to have something to take starting point in.[[File:quantitative.png\|thumb\|upright=2.5\|Figure 3 - Use of quantitative and qualitative description depending on time scope<ref name="amer"/>]]

Mikirkeby at 14:19, 2 October 2017

2017-10-02T14:19:41Z

Show changes

Mikirkeby: /* Annotated Bibliography */

2017-10-02T12:07:51Z

Annotated Bibliography

← Older revision		Revision as of 12:07, 2 October 2017
Line 120:		Line 120:
	::Profound literature review and aggregation of tools related to scenario planning		::Profound literature review and aggregation of tools related to scenario planning

			* '''Cornelius, P., Van De Putte, A., and Romani, M., “Three Decades of Scenario Planning in Shell”'''
	* '''Cornelius, P., Van De Putte, A., and Romani, M., ~~(2005)~~ “Three Decades of Scenario Planning in Shell”'''
	::Study on how Royal Dutch Shell plc has developed and implemented scenario planning into an integral part of their business		::Study on how Royal Dutch Shell plc has developed and implemented scenario planning into an integral part of their business

	== References ==		== References ==
	<references />		<references />

Mikirkeby: /* Annotated Bibliography */

2017-10-02T12:07:37Z

Annotated Bibliography

← Older revision		Revision as of 12:07, 2 October 2017
Line 119:		Line 119:
	* '''Amer, M., Daim T. U., Jetter, A., “A review of scenario planning” '''		* '''Amer, M., Daim T. U., Jetter, A., “A review of scenario planning” '''
	::Profound literature review and aggregation of tools related to scenario planning		::Profound literature review and aggregation of tools related to scenario planning


			* '''Cornelius, P., Van De Putte, A., and Romani, M., (2005) “Three Decades of Scenario Planning in Shell”'''
			::Study on how Royal Dutch Shell plc has developed and implemented scenario planning into an integral part of their business

	== References ==		== References ==
	<references />		<references />