Robust Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty - Revision history

S203168: /* Annotated Bibliography */

2022-03-22T20:13:33Z

Annotated Bibliography

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	== Annotated Bibliography ==		== Annotated Bibliography ==

	~~Annotated Bibliography~~

	'''Marchau, V. A. W. J., Walker, W. E., Bloemen, P. J. T. M., & Popper, S. W. (2019). Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice (1st ed. 2019 ed.)''' <ref name="DMDU2019"/>		'''Marchau, V. A. W. J., Walker, W. E., Bloemen, P. J. T. M., & Popper, S. W. (2019). Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice (1st ed. 2019 ed.)''' <ref name="DMDU2019"/>

S203168: /* Deep Uncertainty and Project, Program and Portfolio Management */

2022-03-19T21:18:56Z

Deep Uncertainty and Project, Program and Portfolio Management

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	[[File:UncertaintySignificance.png \|thumb\|right\|250px\|Figure 1: Uncertainty and Significance of decisions]]		[[File:UncertaintySignificance.png \|thumb\|right\|250px\|Figure 1: Uncertainty and Significance of decisions]]

	A paradox of project planning is that when uncertainty is at its highest – in the beginning of a project – is also when the most crucial and determining decisions need to be taken. When time goes by and the project performer knows more about the project, there are less degrees of freedom to influence it. All projects face varying degrees of uncertainty which is often mentioned as a reason for their failures ~~(''source missing'')~~.		A paradox of project planning is that when uncertainty is at its highest – in the beginning of a project – is also when the most crucial and determining decisions need to be taken. When time goes by and the project performer knows more about the project, there are less degrees of freedom to influence it. All projects face varying degrees of uncertainty which is often mentioned as a reason for their failures.

	Uncertainty characterizes situations where the outcome of a project is likely to deviate from the estimated outcome. There are several levels of uncertainty and many operate with four levels. Level 1, 2 and 3 ranges from almost certainty of the outcome to a limited set of plausible outcomes with unknown probabilities. Level four represents the highest level of uncertainty, also called deep uncertainty. Level four can be distinguished into two types: a) where the future is bound around many plausible futures, and b) where the only thing that is known about the future is that it is not known. Type a is often due to lack of information, whereas type b is due to unpredictable events <ref name="DMDU2019"/> . We see the tendency that important problems faced by decision makers are characterized by a higher level of uncertainty and cannot be reduced simply by collecting information, because the uncertainties are unknowable at the time. Such situations are defined as decision making under deep uncertainty <ref name="DMDU2019"/>		Uncertainty characterizes situations where the outcome of a project is likely to deviate from the estimated outcome. There are several levels of uncertainty and many operate with four levels. Level 1, 2 and 3 ranges from almost certainty of the outcome to a limited set of plausible outcomes with unknown probabilities. Level four represents the highest level of uncertainty, also called deep uncertainty. Level four can be distinguished into two types: a) where the future is bound around many plausible futures, and b) where the only thing that is known about the future is that it is not known. Type a is often due to lack of information, whereas type b is due to unpredictable events <ref name="DMDU2019"/> . We see the tendency that important problems faced by decision makers are characterized by a higher level of uncertainty and cannot be reduced simply by collecting information, because the uncertainties are unknowable at the time. Such situations are defined as decision making under deep uncertainty <ref name="DMDU2019"/>

S203168 at 21:17, 19 March 2022

2022-03-19T21:17:24Z

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	The uncertainty is highest in the beginning of a project, but it is also here decisions of crucial importance for the project's outcome are made. Furthermore, the world is constantly changing, making it impossible to make reliable decisions based on prediction of what the future holds. There is a need to move away from prediction of the future to instead calculating the most robust decisions.		The uncertainty is highest in the beginning of a project, but it is also here decisions of crucial importance for the project's outcome are made. Furthermore, the world is constantly changing, making it impossible to make reliable decisions based on prediction of what the future holds. There is a need to move away from prediction of the future to instead calculating the most robust decisions.

	This article describes how to approach decisions under high uncertainty as a project/program/portfolio manager or decision maker using robust decision making (RDM). RDM is a set of methods and tools developed over the last decade, primarily by researchers associated with the RAND Corporation <ref name="DMDU2019"> Marchau, V. A. W. J., Walker, W. E., Bloemen, P. J. T. M., & Popper, S. W. (2019).		This article describes how to approach decisions under high uncertainty as a project/program/portfolio manager or decision maker using robust decision making (RDM). RDM is a set of methods and tools developed over the last decade, primarily by researchers associated with the RAND Corporation <ref name="DMDU2019"> Marchau, V. A. W. J., Walker, W. E., Bloemen, P. J. T. M., & Popper, S. W. (2019) </ref>.

	After touching upon the different levels of uncertainty, the article moves on to the core ideas of RDM. RDM combines decision analysis, assumption-based planning, scenarios, and exploratory Modelling to stress test strategies over a great number of possible futures. To provide a hands on understanding the method, the article guides the reader through the five iterative steps of RDM. After this, an illustrative example about long term planning at a water utility is explained <ref name="WaterExample"> Groves, D. G., New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, WSAA (Association), & Water Research Foundation. (2014). CHAPTER 2: THE ROBUST DECISION MAKING FRAMEWORK. In Developing Robust Strategies for Climate Change and Other Risks (pp. 5–16). Water Research Foundation. </ref>. Limitations and challenges of the method are touched on, including the challenge of shifting to a new way of dealing with uncertainty.		After touching upon the different levels of uncertainty, the article moves on to the core ideas of RDM. RDM combines decision analysis, assumption-based planning, scenarios, and exploratory Modelling to stress test strategies over a great number of possible futures. To provide a hands on understanding the method, the article guides the reader through the five iterative steps of RDM. After this, an illustrative example about long term planning at a water utility is explained <ref name="WaterExample"> Groves, D. G., New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, WSAA (Association), & Water Research Foundation. (2014). CHAPTER 2: THE ROBUST DECISION MAKING FRAMEWORK. In Developing Robust Strategies for Climate Change and Other Risks (pp. 5–16). Water Research Foundation. </ref>. Limitations and challenges of the method are touched on, including the challenge of shifting to a new way of dealing with uncertainty.

S203168 at 21:16, 19 March 2022

2022-03-19T21:16:14Z

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	This article describes how to approach decisions under high uncertainty as a project/program/portfolio manager or decision maker using robust decision making (RDM). RDM is a set of methods and tools developed over the last decade, primarily by researchers associated with the RAND Corporation <ref name="DMDU2019"> Marchau, V. A. W. J., Walker, W. E., Bloemen, P. J. T. M., & Popper, S. W. (2019).		This article describes how to approach decisions under high uncertainty as a project/program/portfolio manager or decision maker using robust decision making (RDM). RDM is a set of methods and tools developed over the last decade, primarily by researchers associated with the RAND Corporation <ref name="DMDU2019"> Marchau, V. A. W. J., Walker, W. E., Bloemen, P. J. T. M., & Popper, S. W. (2019).

	After touching upon the different levels of uncertainty, the article moves on to the core ideas of RDM. RDM combines decision analysis, assumption-based planning, scenarios, and exploratory Modelling to stress test strategies over a great number of possible futures. To provide a hands on understanding the method, the article guides the reader through the five iterative steps of RDM. After this, an illustrative example about long term planning at a water utility is explained <ref name="WaterExample"/>. Limitations and challenges of the method are touched on, including the challenge of shifting to a new way of dealing with uncertainty.		After touching upon the different levels of uncertainty, the article moves on to the core ideas of RDM. RDM combines decision analysis, assumption-based planning, scenarios, and exploratory Modelling to stress test strategies over a great number of possible futures. To provide a hands on understanding the method, the article guides the reader through the five iterative steps of RDM. After this, an illustrative example about long term planning at a water utility is explained <ref name="WaterExample"> Groves, D. G., New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, WSAA (Association), & Water Research Foundation. (2014). CHAPTER 2: THE ROBUST DECISION MAKING FRAMEWORK. In Developing Robust Strategies for Climate Change and Other Risks (pp. 5–16). Water Research Foundation. </ref>. Limitations and challenges of the method are touched on, including the challenge of shifting to a new way of dealing with uncertainty.

	It is inevitable to encounter uncertainties in projects, but you can do your best to investigate which strategies will perform best under these uncertainties. RDM is an iterative framework that offers a data-based assessment on future scenarios on which stakeholders and decision makers can base their decisions.		It is inevitable to encounter uncertainties in projects, but you can do your best to investigate which strategies will perform best under these uncertainties. RDM is an iterative framework that offers a data-based assessment on future scenarios on which stakeholders and decision makers can base their decisions.
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	== Example of application ==		== Example of application ==

	The following illustrative example of application of RDM is drawn from RAND Corporation, 2014: THE ROBUST DECISION MAKING FRAMEWORK <ref name="WaterExample"> Groves, D. G., New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, WSAA (Association), & Water Research Foundation. (2014). CHAPTER 2: THE ROBUST DECISION MAKING FRAMEWORK. In Developing Robust Strategies for Climate Change and Other Risks (pp. 5–16). Water Research Foundation. </~~ref~~>.		The following illustrative example of application of RDM is drawn from RAND Corporation, 2014: THE ROBUST DECISION MAKING FRAMEWORK <ref name="WaterExample"/> .

	The focus of the example is the long term planning of a small water utility. The aim is not to provide results but to show how the methodology can be utilized to make the method more hands-on and tangible.		The focus of the example is the long term planning of a small water utility. The aim is not to provide results but to show how the methodology can be utilized to make the method more hands-on and tangible.

S203168 at 21:14, 19 March 2022

2022-03-19T21:14:54Z

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	The uncertainty is highest in the beginning of a project, but it is also here decisions of crucial importance for the project's outcome are made. Furthermore, the world is constantly changing, making it impossible to make reliable decisions based on prediction of what the future holds. There is a need to move away from prediction of the future to instead calculating the most robust decisions.		The uncertainty is highest in the beginning of a project, but it is also here decisions of crucial importance for the project's outcome are made. Furthermore, the world is constantly changing, making it impossible to make reliable decisions based on prediction of what the future holds. There is a need to move away from prediction of the future to instead calculating the most robust decisions.

	This article describes how to approach decisions under high uncertainty as a project/program/portfolio manager or decision maker using robust decision making (RDM). RDM is a set of methods and tools developed over the last decade, primarily by researchers associated with the RAND Corporation (1).		This article describes how to approach decisions under high uncertainty as a project/program/portfolio manager or decision maker using robust decision making (RDM). RDM is a set of methods and tools developed over the last decade, primarily by researchers associated with the RAND Corporation <ref name="DMDU2019"> Marchau, V. A. W. J., Walker, W. E., Bloemen, P. J. T. M., & Popper, S. W. (2019).

	After touching upon the different levels of uncertainty, the article moves on to the core ideas of RDM. RDM combines decision analysis, assumption-based planning, scenarios, and exploratory Modelling to stress test strategies over a great number of possible futures. To provide a hands on understanding the method, the article guides the reader through the five iterative steps of RDM. After this, an illustrative example about long term planning at a water utility is explained ~~(X)~~ . Limitations and challenges of the method are touched on, including the challenge of shifting to a new way of dealing with uncertainty.		After touching upon the different levels of uncertainty, the article moves on to the core ideas of RDM. RDM combines decision analysis, assumption-based planning, scenarios, and exploratory Modelling to stress test strategies over a great number of possible futures. To provide a hands on understanding the method, the article guides the reader through the five iterative steps of RDM. After this, an illustrative example about long term planning at a water utility is explained <ref name="WaterExample"/>. Limitations and challenges of the method are touched on, including the challenge of shifting to a new way of dealing with uncertainty.

	It is inevitable to encounter uncertainties in projects, but you can do your best to investigate which strategies will perform best under these uncertainties. RDM is an iterative framework that offers a data-based assessment on future scenarios on which stakeholders and decision makers can base their decisions.		It is inevitable to encounter uncertainties in projects, but you can do your best to investigate which strategies will perform best under these uncertainties. RDM is an iterative framework that offers a data-based assessment on future scenarios on which stakeholders and decision makers can base their decisions.
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	A paradox of project planning is that when uncertainty is at its highest – in the beginning of a project – is also when the most crucial and determining decisions need to be taken. When time goes by and the project performer knows more about the project, there are less degrees of freedom to influence it. All projects face varying degrees of uncertainty which is often mentioned as a reason for their failures (''source missing'').		A paradox of project planning is that when uncertainty is at its highest – in the beginning of a project – is also when the most crucial and determining decisions need to be taken. When time goes by and the project performer knows more about the project, there are less degrees of freedom to influence it. All projects face varying degrees of uncertainty which is often mentioned as a reason for their failures (''source missing'').

	Uncertainty characterizes situations where the outcome of a project is likely to deviate from the estimated outcome. There are several levels of uncertainty and many operate with four levels. Level 1, 2 and 3 ranges from almost certainty of the outcome to a limited set of plausible outcomes with unknown probabilities. Level four represents the highest level of uncertainty, also called deep uncertainty. Level four can be distinguished into two types: a) where the future is bound around many plausible futures, and b) where the only thing that is known about the future is that it is not known. Type a is often due to lack of information, whereas type b is due to unpredictable events <ref name="DMDU2019"~~> Marchau, V. A. W. J., Walker, W. E., Bloemen, P. J. T. M., & Popper, S. W. (2019). Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice (1st ed. 2019 ed.). Springer. <~~/~~ref~~>. We see the tendency that important problems faced by decision makers are characterized by a higher level of uncertainty and cannot be reduced simply by collecting information, because the uncertainties are unknowable at the time. Such situations are defined as decision making under deep uncertainty <ref name="DMDU2019"/>		Uncertainty characterizes situations where the outcome of a project is likely to deviate from the estimated outcome. There are several levels of uncertainty and many operate with four levels. Level 1, 2 and 3 ranges from almost certainty of the outcome to a limited set of plausible outcomes with unknown probabilities. Level four represents the highest level of uncertainty, also called deep uncertainty. Level four can be distinguished into two types: a) where the future is bound around many plausible futures, and b) where the only thing that is known about the future is that it is not known. Type a is often due to lack of information, whereas type b is due to unpredictable events <ref name="DMDU2019"/> . We see the tendency that important problems faced by decision makers are characterized by a higher level of uncertainty and cannot be reduced simply by collecting information, because the uncertainties are unknowable at the time. Such situations are defined as decision making under deep uncertainty <ref name="DMDU2019"/>

S203168: /* Abstract */

2022-03-19T21:12:21Z

Abstract

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	== Abstract ==		== Abstract ==

	The uncertainty is highest in the beginning of a project, but it is also here decisions of crucial importance for the project's outcome are made. Furthermore, the world is constantly changing, making it impossible to make reliable decisions based on prediction of what the future holds. There is a need to move away from prediction to calculating the most robust decisions.		The uncertainty is highest in the beginning of a project, but it is also here decisions of crucial importance for the project's outcome are made. Furthermore, the world is constantly changing, making it impossible to make reliable decisions based on prediction of what the future holds. There is a need to move away from prediction of the future to instead calculating the most robust decisions.

	This article describes how to approach decisions under high uncertainty as a project manager or ~~project stakeholder~~ using robust decision making (RDM). RDM is a set of methods and tools developed over the last decade, primarily by researchers associated with the RAND Corporation. ~~The~~ article ~~explains~~ the ~~XLRM Matrix for~~ RDM and the ~~Iterative Steps~~ of RDM ~~as well as how to apply these through exemplification~~. Limitations and challenges of the method are touched on, including the challenge of shifting to a new way of dealing with uncertainty.		This article describes how to approach decisions under high uncertainty as a project/program/portfolio manager or decision maker using robust decision making (RDM). RDM is a set of methods and tools developed over the last decade, primarily by researchers associated with the RAND Corporation (1).

			After touching upon the different levels of uncertainty, the article moves on to the core ideas of RDM. RDM combines decision analysis, assumption-based planning, scenarios, and exploratory Modelling to stress test strategies over a great number of possible futures. To provide a hands on understanding the method, the article guides the reader through the five iterative steps of RDM. After this, an illustrative example about long term planning at a water utility is explained (X) . Limitations and challenges of the method are touched on, including the challenge of shifting to a new way of dealing with uncertainty.

	It is inevitable to encounter uncertainties in projects, but you can do your best to investigate which strategies will perform best under these uncertainties. RDM is an iterative framework that offers a data-based assessment on future scenarios on which stakeholders and decision makers can base their decisions.		It is inevitable to encounter uncertainties in projects, but you can do your best to investigate which strategies will perform best under these uncertainties. RDM is an iterative framework that offers a data-based assessment on future scenarios on which stakeholders and decision makers can base their decisions.

S203168: /* Deep Uncertainty and Project, Program and Portfolio Management */

2022-03-19T20:13:03Z

Deep Uncertainty and Project, Program and Portfolio Management

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	Normally when speaking about uncertainty in projects, program and portfolio management, risk management tools are discussed and applied. <ref name="PMBOK2021"> Project Management: A guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK guide), 7th Edition (2021) </ref>.		Normally when speaking about uncertainty in projects, program and portfolio management, risk management tools are discussed and applied <ref name="PMBOK2021"> Project Management: A guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK guide), 7th Edition (2021) </ref>.
	These tools often provide a framework for addressing and managing risks – or uncertain event/condition. But to be able to identify risks and thereby manage risk in a traditional way, the ambiguity needs to be low and the information available relatively high <ref name="PMBOK2021"/>. Furthermore, when taking a general approach to risk management, portfolio, program, and project managers need to identify the risk probability and impact. <ref name="riskmgmt"> The Standard for Risk Management in Portfolios, Programs, and Projects (2019), PMI </ref>.		These tools often provide a framework for addressing and managing risks – or uncertain event/condition. But to be able to identify risks and thereby manage risk in a traditional way, the ambiguity needs to be low and the information available relatively high <ref name="PMBOK2021"/>. Furthermore, when taking a general approach to risk management, portfolio, program, and project managers need to identify the risk probability and impact. <ref name="riskmgmt"> The Standard for Risk Management in Portfolios, Programs, and Projects (2019), PMI </ref>.

S203168: /* Deep Uncertainty and Project, Program and Portfolio Management */

2022-03-19T20:12:36Z

Deep Uncertainty and Project, Program and Portfolio Management

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	Normally when speaking about uncertainty in projects, program and portfolio management, risk management tools are discussed and applied. <ref name="PMBOK2021"> Project Management: A guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK guide), 7th Edition (2021) </ref>.		Normally when speaking about uncertainty in projects, program and portfolio management, risk management tools are discussed and applied. <ref name="PMBOK2021"> Project Management: A guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK guide), 7th Edition (2021) </ref>.
	These tools often provide a framework for addressing and managing risks – or uncertain event/condition. But to be able to identify risks and thereby manage risk in a traditional way, the ambiguity needs to be low and the information available relatively high. ~~(same kilde)~~ Furthermore, when taking a general approach to risk management, portfolio, program, and project managers need to identify the risk probability and impact. <ref name="riskmgmt"> The Standard for Risk Management in Portfolios, Programs, and Projects (2019), PMI </ref>.		These tools often provide a framework for addressing and managing risks – or uncertain event/condition. But to be able to identify risks and thereby manage risk in a traditional way, the ambiguity needs to be low and the information available relatively high <ref name="PMBOK2021"/>. Furthermore, when taking a general approach to risk management, portfolio, program, and project managers need to identify the risk probability and impact. <ref name="riskmgmt"> The Standard for Risk Management in Portfolios, Programs, and Projects (2019), PMI </ref>.

	Different approaches are needed for handling decisions in deep uncertainty (level 4) than in level 1, 2 and 3. This is because these types of uncertainties involve factors of which probability distributions and possible outcomes are not known. There is a need for a new paradigm for decision making under deep uncertainty that is not based on predictions of the future (known as the “predict-then-act” paradigm). The “monitor and adapt” paradigm is more suited for deep uncertainty, which recognizes the need for taking the uncertainty into account and prepares and adapts for uncertain events <ref name="Lempert2004"> Lempert, R. J., Nakicenovic, N., Sarewitz, D., & Schlesinger, M. (2004). Characterizing climate change uncertainties for decision-makers—An editorial essay. Climatic Change, 65(1–2), 1–9. </ref>.		Different approaches are needed for handling decisions in deep uncertainty (level 4) than in level 1, 2 and 3. This is because these types of uncertainties involve factors of which probability distributions and possible outcomes are not known. There is a need for a new paradigm for decision making under deep uncertainty that is not based on predictions of the future (known as the “predict-then-act” paradigm). The “monitor and adapt” paradigm is more suited for deep uncertainty, which recognizes the need for taking the uncertainty into account and prepares and adapts for uncertain events <ref name="Lempert2004"> Lempert, R. J., Nakicenovic, N., Sarewitz, D., & Schlesinger, M. (2004). Characterizing climate change uncertainties for decision-makers—An editorial essay. Climatic Change, 65(1–2), 1–9. </ref>.

S203168: /* Overview of RDM */

2022-03-19T20:11:28Z

Overview of RDM

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	Robust decision making can help by:		Robust decision making can help by:

	- '''Identifying which strateg(ies) are most robust.''' This means which stratigy’s satisfactory per-formance is relatively insensitive to all or most of the uncertainties – compared to the other		- '''Identifying which strateg(ies) are most robust.''' This means which stratigy’s satisfactory per-formance is relatively insensitive to all or most of the uncertainties – compared to the other <ref name="Lempert2009"> Lempert, R. (2009). ROBUST DECISIONMAKING (RDM),. In S. Popper & S. Bankes (Eds.), Futures Research Methodology Version 3.0 (pp. 1–17). The Millennium Project. https://millennium-project.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/22-Robust-Decisionmaking.pdf </ref>

	- '''Identifying vulnerabilities of the robust strategies.''' This means combinations of model formulations and parameters where the strategy performs poor compared to other		- '''Identifying vulnerabilities of the robust strategies.''' This means combinations of model formulations and parameters where the strategy performs poor compared to other <ref name="Lempert2009"/>

	- '''Suggesting new strategies''' which might better combat these vulnerabilities		- '''Suggesting new strategies''' which might better combat these vulnerabilities <ref name="Lempert2009"/>

	- '''Characterizing the trade-offs''' involved in the choice among the options <ref name="Lempert2009"~~> Lempert, R. (2009). ROBUST DECISIONMAKING (RDM),. In S. Popper & S. Bankes (Eds.), Futures Research Methodology Version 3.0 (pp. 1–17). The Millennium Project. https:~~/~~/millennium-project.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/22-Robust-Decisionmaking.pdf </ref~~>		- '''Characterizing the trade-offs''' involved in the choice among the options <ref name="Lempert2009"/>

	== Foundation of RMD ==		== Foundation of RMD ==

S203168: /* Deep Uncertainty and Project, Program and Portfolio Management */

2022-03-19T19:59:37Z

Deep Uncertainty and Project, Program and Portfolio Management

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	Normally when speaking about uncertainty in projects, program and portfolio management, risk management tools are discussed and applied. (Project Management: A guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK guide), 7th Edition (2021)		Normally when speaking about uncertainty in projects, program and portfolio management, risk management tools are discussed and applied. <ref name="PMBOK2021"> Project Management: A guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK guide), 7th Edition (2021) </ref>.
	These tools often provide a framework for addressing and managing risks – or uncertain event/condition. But to be able to identify risks and thereby manage risk in a traditional way, the ambiguity needs to be low and the information available relatively high. (same kilde) Furthermore, when taking a general approach to risk management, portfolio, program, and project managers need to identify the risk probability and impact. (~~https://app.knovel.com/hotlink/toc/id:kpSRMPPP01/standard-risk-management~~/~~context-key-concepts?&issue_id=kpSRMPPP01&hierarchy=undefined)~~.		These tools often provide a framework for addressing and managing risks – or uncertain event/condition. But to be able to identify risks and thereby manage risk in a traditional way, the ambiguity needs to be low and the information available relatively high. (same kilde) Furthermore, when taking a general approach to risk management, portfolio, program, and project managers need to identify the risk probability and impact. <ref name="riskmgmt"> The Standard for Risk Management in Portfolios, Programs, and Projects (2019), PMI </ref>.

	Different approaches are needed for handling decisions in deep uncertainty (level 4) than in level 1, 2 and 3. This is because these types of uncertainties involve factors of which probability distributions and possible outcomes are not known. There is a need for a new paradigm for decision making under deep uncertainty that is not based on predictions of the future (known as the “predict-then-act” paradigm). The “monitor and adapt” paradigm is more suited for deep uncertainty, which recognizes the need for taking the uncertainty into account and prepares and adapts for uncertain events <ref name="Lempert2004"> Lempert, R. J., Nakicenovic, N., Sarewitz, D., & Schlesinger, M. (2004). Characterizing climate change uncertainties for decision-makers—An editorial essay. Climatic Change, 65(1–2), 1–9. </ref>.		Different approaches are needed for handling decisions in deep uncertainty (level 4) than in level 1, 2 and 3. This is because these types of uncertainties involve factors of which probability distributions and possible outcomes are not known. There is a need for a new paradigm for decision making under deep uncertainty that is not based on predictions of the future (known as the “predict-then-act” paradigm). The “monitor and adapt” paradigm is more suited for deep uncertainty, which recognizes the need for taking the uncertainty into account and prepares and adapts for uncertain events <ref name="Lempert2004"> Lempert, R. J., Nakicenovic, N., Sarewitz, D., & Schlesinger, M. (2004). Characterizing climate change uncertainties for decision-makers—An editorial essay. Climatic Change, 65(1–2), 1–9. </ref>.