Learning plans for high uncertainty projects - Revision history

S164338: /* Benefits and Limitations */

2021-02-28T21:40:20Z

Benefits and Limitations

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	The following section lists key benefits and limitations of the learning plan as a planning approach.		The following section lists key benefits and limitations of the learning plan as a planning approach.

	*'''Reduced maturation time or time needed to gain sufficient information to kill the project.''' The systematic way of reducing uncertainty using the learning plan has proven to reduce either the maturation time or the time needed to reach a decision to kill the project by as much as 50%.<ref name="mit10"> Block, Z., MacMillan, 1985. Milestones for Successful Venture Planning, Harvard Business Review 63, 184-196.</ref>		*'''Reduced maturation time or time needed to gain sufficient information to kill the project.'''

	*'''Limited to facilitating a learning ~~process'''. The tool is limited~~ to ~~facilitating its three phases explained previously as it does not suggest~~ the ~~means~~ to ~~identify uncertainties, prioritize them, develop assumptions and so forth. Thus, other tools may be used within~~ the ~~steps of each phase, please see the annotated bibliography for examples~~. <ref name="mit10"> Block, Z., MacMillan, 1985. Milestones for Successful Venture Planning, Harvard Business Review 63, 184-196.</ref>		The systematic way of reducing uncertainty using the learning plan has proven to reduce either the maturation time or the time needed to reach a decision to kill the project by as much as 50%.<ref name="mit10"> Block, Z., MacMillan, 1985. Milestones for Successful Venture Planning, Harvard Business Review 63, 184-196.</ref>

	*'''~~The tool encourages the project team~~ to ~~identify and act on the full spectrum of uncertainties to be resolved to succeed with~~ a ~~project.~~''' Furthermore, it helps to get an overview of what is known and unknown, which uncertainties to prioritize, suggest different assumptions about an uncertainty to be tested, and to find ways to test these assumptions as fast and inexpensive as possible.		*'''Limited to facilitating a learning process'''.

	*'''Project team tends to prioritize ~~uncertainties they are more comfortable with~~ and ~~to ignore those who are difficult to address~~.~~''' This is a pitfall for teams composed~~ of ~~specialists from the same professional backgrounds~~, ~~who generally prefer to focus on challenges they can~~ see ~~a way through~~. ~~Failing to recognize uncertainties of other categories increases the likelihood that one of these uncertainties will turn out to be a project killer~~. ~~To counteract such tendencies~~, ~~it is important~~ for ~~oversight boards to be staffed with veterans of high~~-~~uncertainty projects~~.		The tool is limited to facilitating its three phases explained previously as it does not suggest the means to identify uncertainties, prioritize them, develop assumptions and so forth. Thus, other tools may be used within the steps of each phase, please see the annotated bibliography for examples. <ref name="mit10"> Block, Z., MacMillan, 1985. Milestones for Successful Venture Planning, Harvard Business Review 63, 184-196.</ref>

	*'''Identifying success criteria for assumption testing can be difficult.''' It can be difficult to define the right success criteria based on which the results of an assumption test will be approved or disapproved. When does the project team have enough information to state an unknown has become a known? If the success criteria are slightly off, they may be measuring another parameter than the intended, and the project team will falsely claim to have uncovered an unknown. Thus, it is important for the project team to discuss its plan for testing assumptions and defining success criteria with the overview board before executing tests. <ref name="mit3"> Rice, M. P., O’Connor, G. C., Pierantozzi, R., 2008. Counter Project Uncertainty, MIT Sloan Management Review, Winter, 54-62.</ref>		*'''The tool encourages the project team to identify and act on the full spectrum of uncertainties to be resolved to succeed with a project.'''

			Furthermore, it helps to get an overview of what is known and unknown, which uncertainties to prioritize, suggest different assumptions about an uncertainty to be tested, and to find ways to test these assumptions as fast and inexpensive as possible.

			*'''Project team tends to prioritize uncertainties they are more comfortable with and to ignore those who are difficult to address.'''

			This is a pitfall for teams composed of specialists from the same professional backgrounds, who generally prefer to focus on challenges they can see a way through. Failing to recognize uncertainties of other categories increases the likelihood that one of these uncertainties will turn out to be a project killer. To counteract such tendencies, it is important for oversight boards to be staffed with veterans of high-uncertainty projects.

			*'''Identifying success criteria for assumption testing can be difficult.'''

			It can be difficult to define the right success criteria based on which the results of an assumption test will be approved or disapproved. When does the project team have enough information to state an unknown has become a known? If the success criteria are slightly off, they may be measuring another parameter than the intended, and the project team will falsely claim to have uncovered an unknown. Thus, it is important for the project team to discuss its plan for testing assumptions and defining success criteria with the overview board before executing tests. <ref name="mit3"> Rice, M. P., O’Connor, G. C., Pierantozzi, R., 2008. Counter Project Uncertainty, MIT Sloan Management Review, Winter, 54-62.</ref>

			*''' Project teams may try to find evidence that backup their hypothesis when testing assumptions'''
			If the project team is biased, it may purposely try to seek evidence that backup the hypotheses during the first phase of the learning plan. The consequence is less knowledge produced from a learning loop. Thus, it is crucial that the project team does its best to stay unbiased.

	== Glossary ==		== Glossary ==

S164338: /* Benefits and Limitations */

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Benefits and Limitations

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	*'''Reduced maturation time or time needed to gain sufficient information to kill the project.''' The systematic way of reducing uncertainty using the learning plan has proven to reduce either the maturation time or the time needed to reach a decision to kill the project by as much as 50%.<ref name="mit10"> Block, Z., MacMillan, 1985. Milestones for Successful Venture Planning, Harvard Business Review 63, 184-196.</ref>		*'''Reduced maturation time or time needed to gain sufficient information to kill the project.''' The systematic way of reducing uncertainty using the learning plan has proven to reduce either the maturation time or the time needed to reach a decision to kill the project by as much as 50%.<ref name="mit10"> Block, Z., MacMillan, 1985. Milestones for Successful Venture Planning, Harvard Business Review 63, 184-196.</ref>


	*'''Limited to facilitating a learning process'''. The tool is limited to facilitating its three phases explained previously as it does not suggest the means to identify uncertainties, prioritize them, develop assumptions and so forth. Thus, other tools may be used within the steps of each phase, please see the annotated bibliography for examples. <ref name="mit10"> Block, Z., MacMillan, 1985. Milestones for Successful Venture Planning, Harvard Business Review 63, 184-196.</ref>		*'''Limited to facilitating a learning process'''. The tool is limited to facilitating its three phases explained previously as it does not suggest the means to identify uncertainties, prioritize them, develop assumptions and so forth. Thus, other tools may be used within the steps of each phase, please see the annotated bibliography for examples. <ref name="mit10"> Block, Z., MacMillan, 1985. Milestones for Successful Venture Planning, Harvard Business Review 63, 184-196.</ref>


	*'''The tool encourages the project team to identify and act on the full spectrum of uncertainties to be resolved to succeed with a project.''' Furthermore, it helps to get an overview of what is known and unknown, which uncertainties to prioritize, suggest different assumptions about an uncertainty to be tested, and to find ways to test these assumptions as fast and inexpensive as possible.		*'''The tool encourages the project team to identify and act on the full spectrum of uncertainties to be resolved to succeed with a project.''' Furthermore, it helps to get an overview of what is known and unknown, which uncertainties to prioritize, suggest different assumptions about an uncertainty to be tested, and to find ways to test these assumptions as fast and inexpensive as possible.


	*'''Project team tends to prioritize uncertainties they are more comfortable with and to ignore those who are difficult to address.''' This is a pitfall for teams composed of specialists from the same professional backgrounds, who generally prefer to focus on challenges they can see a way through. Failing to recognize uncertainties of other categories increases the likelihood that one of these uncertainties will turn out to be a project killer. To counteract such tendencies, it is important for oversight boards to be staffed with veterans of high-uncertainty projects.		*'''Project team tends to prioritize uncertainties they are more comfortable with and to ignore those who are difficult to address.''' This is a pitfall for teams composed of specialists from the same professional backgrounds, who generally prefer to focus on challenges they can see a way through. Failing to recognize uncertainties of other categories increases the likelihood that one of these uncertainties will turn out to be a project killer. To counteract such tendencies, it is important for oversight boards to be staffed with veterans of high-uncertainty projects.


	*'''Identifying success criteria for assumption testing can be difficult.''' It can be difficult to define the right success criteria based on which the results of an assumption test will be approved or disapproved. When does the project team have enough information to state an unknown has become a known? If the success criteria are slightly off, they may be measuring another parameter than the intended, and the project team will falsely claim to have uncovered an unknown. Thus, it is important for the project team to discuss its plan for testing assumptions and defining success criteria with the overview board before executing tests. <ref name="mit3"> Rice, M. P., O’Connor, G. C., Pierantozzi, R., 2008. Counter Project Uncertainty, MIT Sloan Management Review, Winter, 54-62.</ref>		*'''Identifying success criteria for assumption testing can be difficult.''' It can be difficult to define the right success criteria based on which the results of an assumption test will be approved or disapproved. When does the project team have enough information to state an unknown has become a known? If the success criteria are slightly off, they may be measuring another parameter than the intended, and the project team will falsely claim to have uncovered an unknown. Thus, it is important for the project team to discuss its plan for testing assumptions and defining success criteria with the overview board before executing tests. <ref name="mit3"> Rice, M. P., O’Connor, G. C., Pierantozzi, R., 2008. Counter Project Uncertainty, MIT Sloan Management Review, Winter, 54-62.</ref>

S164338: /* Benefits and Limitations */

2021-02-28T21:33:59Z

Benefits and Limitations

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	*'''Reduced maturation time or time needed to gain sufficient information to kill the project.''' The systematic way of reducing uncertainty using the learning plan has proven to reduce either the maturation time or the time needed to reach a decision to kill the project by as much as 50%.<ref name="mit10"> Block, Z., MacMillan, 1985. Milestones for Successful Venture Planning, Harvard Business Review 63, 184-196.</ref>		*'''Reduced maturation time or time needed to gain sufficient information to kill the project.''' The systematic way of reducing uncertainty using the learning plan has proven to reduce either the maturation time or the time needed to reach a decision to kill the project by as much as 50%.<ref name="mit10"> Block, Z., MacMillan, 1985. Milestones for Successful Venture Planning, Harvard Business Review 63, 184-196.</ref>


	*'''Limited to facilitating a learning process'''. The tool is limited to facilitating its three phases explained previously as it does not suggest the means to identify uncertainties, prioritize them, develop assumptions and so forth. Thus, other tools may be used within the steps of each phase, please see the annotated bibliography for examples. <ref name="mit10"> Block, Z., MacMillan, 1985. Milestones for Successful Venture Planning, Harvard Business Review 63, 184-196.</ref>		*'''Limited to facilitating a learning process'''. The tool is limited to facilitating its three phases explained previously as it does not suggest the means to identify uncertainties, prioritize them, develop assumptions and so forth. Thus, other tools may be used within the steps of each phase, please see the annotated bibliography for examples. <ref name="mit10"> Block, Z., MacMillan, 1985. Milestones for Successful Venture Planning, Harvard Business Review 63, 184-196.</ref>


	*'''The tool encourages the project team to identify and act on the full spectrum of uncertainties to be resolved to succeed with a project.''' Furthermore, it helps to get an overview of what is known and unknown, which uncertainties to prioritize, suggest different assumptions about an uncertainty to be tested, and to find ways to test these assumptions as fast and inexpensive as possible.		*'''The tool encourages the project team to identify and act on the full spectrum of uncertainties to be resolved to succeed with a project.''' Furthermore, it helps to get an overview of what is known and unknown, which uncertainties to prioritize, suggest different assumptions about an uncertainty to be tested, and to find ways to test these assumptions as fast and inexpensive as possible.


	*'''Project team tends to prioritize uncertainties they are more comfortable with and to ignore those who are difficult to address.''' This is a pitfall for teams composed of specialists from the same professional backgrounds, who generally prefer to focus on challenges they can see a way through. Failing to recognize uncertainties of other categories increases the likelihood that one of these uncertainties will turn out to be a project killer. To counteract such tendencies, it is important for oversight boards to be staffed with veterans of high-uncertainty projects.		*'''Project team tends to prioritize uncertainties they are more comfortable with and to ignore those who are difficult to address.''' This is a pitfall for teams composed of specialists from the same professional backgrounds, who generally prefer to focus on challenges they can see a way through. Failing to recognize uncertainties of other categories increases the likelihood that one of these uncertainties will turn out to be a project killer. To counteract such tendencies, it is important for oversight boards to be staffed with veterans of high-uncertainty projects.


	*'''Identifying success criteria for assumption testing can be difficult.''' It can be difficult to define the right success criteria based on which the results of an assumption test will be approved or disapproved. When does the project team have enough information to state an unknown has become a known? If the success criteria are slightly off, they may be measuring another parameter than the intended, and the project team will falsely claim to have uncovered an unknown. Thus, it is important for the project team to discuss its plan for testing assumptions and defining success criteria with the overview board before executing tests. <ref name="mit3"> Rice, M. P., O’Connor, G. C., Pierantozzi, R., 2008. Counter Project Uncertainty, MIT Sloan Management Review, Winter, 54-62.</ref>		*'''Identifying success criteria for assumption testing can be difficult.''' It can be difficult to define the right success criteria based on which the results of an assumption test will be approved or disapproved. When does the project team have enough information to state an unknown has become a known? If the success criteria are slightly off, they may be measuring another parameter than the intended, and the project team will falsely claim to have uncovered an unknown. Thus, it is important for the project team to discuss its plan for testing assumptions and defining success criteria with the overview board before executing tests. <ref name="mit3"> Rice, M. P., O’Connor, G. C., Pierantozzi, R., 2008. Counter Project Uncertainty, MIT Sloan Management Review, Winter, 54-62.</ref>

S164338: /* Glossary */

2021-02-28T21:33:09Z

Glossary

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	== Glossary ==		== Glossary ==
	*Learning loop: Testing one set of critical assumptions in the first phase of the learning plan.		*Learning loop: Testing one set of critical assumptions in the first phase of the learning plan.

	*Learning per dollar spent: The metric used by management to measure the progress of projects. The metric is also used when selecting approaches to test assumptions to maximize the learning from learning loops.		*Learning per dollar spent: The metric used by management to measure the progress of projects. The metric is also used when selecting approaches to test assumptions to maximize the learning from learning loops.

	*Learning plan template: No standardized template exists, however, the template shown in figure 1 is an example that provides a step-by-step process to implement the Learning plan.		*Learning plan template: No standardized template exists, however, the template shown in figure 1 is an example that provides a step-by-step process to implement the Learning plan.

	*Oversight board: A board consisting of managers that acts as quality control and help assess the learning produced by learning loops.<ref name="mit3"> Rice, M. P., O’Connor, G. C., Pierantozzi, R., 2008. Counter Project Uncertainty, MIT Sloan Management Review, Winter, 54-62.</ref>		*Oversight board: A board consisting of managers that acts as quality control and help assess the learning produced by learning loops.<ref name="mit3"> Rice, M. P., O’Connor, G. C., Pierantozzi, R., 2008. Counter Project Uncertainty, MIT Sloan Management Review, Winter, 54-62.</ref>

S164338: /* Introduction */

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Introduction

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	== Introduction ==		== Introduction ==
	[[File: Learning-Plan-Template.png \|200px\|thumb\|right\| Figure 1: Re-edited version of the Learning Plan template developed by Rice et al. (2008).<ref name="mit3"> Rice, M. P., O’Connor, G. C., Pierantozzi, R., 2008. Counter Project Uncertainty, MIT Sloan Management Review, Winter, 54-62.</ref>]]		[[File: Learning-Plan-Template.png \|200px\|thumb\|right\| Figure 1: Re-edited version of the Learning Plan template developed by Rice et al. (2008).<ref name="mit3"> Rice, M. P., O’Connor, G. C., Pierantozzi, R., 2008. Counter Project Uncertainty, MIT Sloan Management Review, Winter, 54-62.</ref>]]
	Cash and Kreye (2017) defines uncertainty as "perceived lack of knowledge by an individual, in the form of deficiencies in any stage or activity of the process that can be characterized as not definite, not known, or not reliable". <ref name="Uncertainty_Def"> Cash, P., & Kreye, M. E. (2017), 'Exploring Uncertainty Perception as a Driver of Design Activity', ''Design Studies'', 54(January), pp.50-79. </ref> When such uncertainties are high, project teams often need to proceed based on assumptions rather than known facts. This is typically the case for innovation projects where the final market may be unclear. The significance and number of uncertainties make it complex to define milestones and the pathways to achieving them. In ~~such~~ projects, it is more useful to use a learning based approach to counter project uncertainties.		Cash and Kreye (2017) defines uncertainty as "perceived lack of knowledge by an individual, in the form of deficiencies in any stage or activity of the process that can be characterized as not definite, not known, or not reliable". <ref name="Uncertainty_Def"> Cash, P., & Kreye, M. E. (2017), 'Exploring Uncertainty Perception as a Driver of Design Activity', ''Design Studies'', 54(January), pp.50-79. </ref> When such uncertainties are high in a project, project teams often need to proceed based on assumptions rather than known facts. This is typically the case for innovation projects where the final market may be unclear. The significance and number of uncertainties make it complex to define milestones and the pathways to achieving them. In these projects, it is more useful to use a learning based approach to counter project uncertainties.

	The learning plan offers an iterative learning based approach that systematically turns unknowns into knowns. The tool is shown on figure 1 and is implemented at the planning stage of a project. The learning produced using the tool reduces uncertainty and allows a project team to evaluate and redirect the project in a proactive way when objectives may be unclear or when the goal is clear, but the path is uncertain. From a management perspective, the learning plan is able to reduce either the maturation time or the time needed to reach a decision to kill the project by as much as 50%. It does so by providing a foundation on which management can decide on an ongoing basis whether the cumulative learning is of sufficient value to warrant continuing the project .<ref name="mit10"> Block, Z., MacMillan, 1985. Milestones for Successful Venture Planning, Harvard Business Review 63, 184-196.</ref> This article describes what the learning plan is, how to implement it and highlights the benefits and limitation of the tool.		The learning plan offers an iterative learning based approach that systematically turns unknowns into knowns. The tool is shown on figure 1 and is implemented at the planning stage of a project. The learning produced using the tool reduces uncertainty and allows a project team to evaluate and redirect the project in a proactive way when objectives may be unclear or when the goal is clear, but the path is uncertain. From a management perspective, the learning plan is able to reduce either the maturation time or the time needed to reach a decision to kill the project by as much as 50%. It does so by providing a foundation on which management can decide on an ongoing basis whether the cumulative learning is of sufficient value to warrant continuing the project .<ref name="mit10"> Block, Z., MacMillan, 1985. Milestones for Successful Venture Planning, Harvard Business Review 63, 184-196.</ref> This article describes what the learning plan is, how to implement it and highlights the benefits and limitation of the tool.

S164338: /* Introduction */

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Introduction

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	Cash and Kreye (2017) defines uncertainty as "perceived lack of knowledge by an individual, in the form of deficiencies in any stage or activity of the process that can be characterized as not definite, not known, or not reliable". <ref name="Uncertainty_Def"> Cash, P., & Kreye, M. E. (2017), 'Exploring Uncertainty Perception as a Driver of Design Activity', ''Design Studies'', 54(January), pp.50-79. </ref> When such uncertainties are high, project teams often need to proceed based on assumptions rather than known facts. This is typically the case for innovation projects where the final market may be unclear. The significance and number of uncertainties make it complex to define milestones and the pathways to achieving them. In such projects, it is more useful to use a learning based approach to counter project uncertainties.		Cash and Kreye (2017) defines uncertainty as "perceived lack of knowledge by an individual, in the form of deficiencies in any stage or activity of the process that can be characterized as not definite, not known, or not reliable". <ref name="Uncertainty_Def"> Cash, P., & Kreye, M. E. (2017), 'Exploring Uncertainty Perception as a Driver of Design Activity', ''Design Studies'', 54(January), pp.50-79. </ref> When such uncertainties are high, project teams often need to proceed based on assumptions rather than known facts. This is typically the case for innovation projects where the final market may be unclear. The significance and number of uncertainties make it complex to define milestones and the pathways to achieving them. In such projects, it is more useful to use a learning based approach to counter project uncertainties.

	The learning plan offers an iterative learning based approach that systematically turns unknowns into knowns. The tool is shown on figure 1 and is implemented at the planning stage of a project. The learning produced using the tool reduces uncertainty and allows a project team to evaluate and redirect the project in a proactive way when objectives may be unclear or when the goal is clear, but the path is uncertain. From a management perspective, the learning plan is able to reduce either the maturation time or the time needed to reach a decision to kill the project by as much as 50%. It does so by providing a foundation on which management can decide on an ongoing basis whether the cumulative learning is of sufficient value to warrant continuing the project .<ref name="mit10"> Block, Z., MacMillan, 1985. Milestones for Successful Venture Planning, Harvard Business Review 63, 184-196.</ref>		The learning plan offers an iterative learning based approach that systematically turns unknowns into knowns. The tool is shown on figure 1 and is implemented at the planning stage of a project. The learning produced using the tool reduces uncertainty and allows a project team to evaluate and redirect the project in a proactive way when objectives may be unclear or when the goal is clear, but the path is uncertain. From a management perspective, the learning plan is able to reduce either the maturation time or the time needed to reach a decision to kill the project by as much as 50%. It does so by providing a foundation on which management can decide on an ongoing basis whether the cumulative learning is of sufficient value to warrant continuing the project .<ref name="mit10"> Block, Z., MacMillan, 1985. Milestones for Successful Venture Planning, Harvard Business Review 63, 184-196.</ref> This article describes what the learning plan is, how to implement it and highlights the benefits and limitation of the tool.

	There is no standardized version of the learning plan, however, different versions contain the basic steps:<ref name="mit3"> Rice, M. P., O’Connor, G. C., Pierantozzi, R., 2008. Counter Project Uncertainty, MIT Sloan Management Review, Winter, 54-62.</ref>		There is no standardized version of the learning plan, however, different versions contain the basic steps:<ref name="mit3"> Rice, M. P., O’Connor, G. C., Pierantozzi, R., 2008. Counter Project Uncertainty, MIT Sloan Management Review, Winter, 54-62.</ref>

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	''By Kavikrishnan Balakrishnan (s164338)''		''By Kavikrishnan Balakrishnan (s164338)''

	The learning plan is a project planning tool that systematically reduces project uncertainties to reduce maturation time, or the time needed to reach a decision to kill a project. In practice, it is a document facilitating an iterative learning process for project teams to resolve uncertainties within four categories: technical, market, organizational and resource uncertainties. The learning plan encourages project teams to work in learning loops, that is: identify the most critical unknowns, develop assumptions for them and test them. The output of a learning loop is evaluated before the next iteration begins. The tool allows a team to manage the ongoing evaluation and redirection in high uncertainty projects, where specific objectives most likely are unclear or where the final goal is clear, but the pathway is uncertain. The learning produced by learning loops gives managers a foundation to decide on an ongoing basis whether the cumulative learning is of sufficient value to warrant continuing the project. <ref name="mit3"> Rice, M. P., O’Connor, G. C., Pierantozzi, R., 2008. Counter Project Uncertainty, MIT Sloan Management Review, Winter, 54-62.</ref> ~~This article describes what the learning plan is, how to implement it and highlights the benefits and limitation of the tool.~~		The learning plan is a project planning tool that systematically reduces project uncertainties to reduce maturation time, or the time needed to reach a decision to kill a project. In practice, it is a document facilitating an iterative learning process for project teams to resolve uncertainties within four categories: technical, market, organizational and resource uncertainties. The learning plan encourages project teams to work in learning loops, that is: identify the most critical unknowns, develop assumptions for them and test them. The output of a learning loop is evaluated before the next iteration begins. The tool allows a team to manage the ongoing evaluation and redirection in high uncertainty projects, where specific objectives most likely are unclear or where the final goal is clear, but the pathway is uncertain. The learning produced by learning loops gives managers a foundation to decide on an ongoing basis whether the cumulative learning is of sufficient value to warrant continuing the project. <ref name="mit3"> Rice, M. P., O’Connor, G. C., Pierantozzi, R., 2008. Counter Project Uncertainty, MIT Sloan Management Review, Winter, 54-62.</ref>

	== Introduction ==		== Introduction ==
	[[File: Learning-Plan-Template.png \|200px\|thumb\|right\| Figure 1: Re-edited version of the Learning Plan template developed by Rice et al. (2008).<ref name="mit3"> Rice, M. P., O’Connor, G. C., Pierantozzi, R., 2008. Counter Project Uncertainty, MIT Sloan Management Review, Winter, 54-62.</ref>]]		[[File: Learning-Plan-Template.png \|200px\|thumb\|right\| Figure 1: Re-edited version of the Learning Plan template developed by Rice et al. (2008).<ref name="mit3"> Rice, M. P., O’Connor, G. C., Pierantozzi, R., 2008. Counter Project Uncertainty, MIT Sloan Management Review, Winter, 54-62.</ref>]]

S164338: /* Reducing Uncertainty by Increasing Learning */

2021-02-28T21:20:16Z

Reducing Uncertainty by Increasing Learning

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	[[File: Planning-Approaches.png \|200px\|thumb\|right\|Figure 2: Project planning approaches. *Market, technical, organizational and resource uncertainties. Re-edited version of the one developed by Rice et al. (2008) <ref name="mit3"> Rice, M. P., O’Connor, G. C., Pierantozzi, R., 2008. Counter Project Uncertainty, MIT Sloan Management Review, Winter, 54-62.</ref>]]		[[File: Planning-Approaches.png \|200px\|thumb\|right\|Figure 2: Project planning approaches. *Market, technical, organizational and resource uncertainties. Re-edited version of the one developed by Rice et al. (2008) <ref name="mit3"> Rice, M. P., O’Connor, G. C., Pierantozzi, R., 2008. Counter Project Uncertainty, MIT Sloan Management Review, Winter, 54-62.</ref>]]

	In high uncertainty projects, project teams often need to proceed based on assumptions rather than facts. However, there is a knowledge gap between an assumption and a fact that creates uncertainty. The learning plan encourages teams to maximize the learning per dollar spent in order to reduce the knowledge gaps that lies between assumptions and facts in a low-cost fashion. Richard (2010) defines learning as 'the process of acquiring new, or modifying existing, knowledge, behaviors, skills, values, or preferences based on experience'. <ref name="Psychology"> Gross, Richard (2010), 'Psychology: The Science of Mind and Behaviour', 6th Edition. </ref> Learning per dollar spent' is also how progress is measured when using the learning plan. It builds on the fact that the direction or goal of such projects tend to change much more frequent compared to projects of low uncertainty. Thus, it gives management a metric to continually assess the value of cumulative learning compared to the costs incurred and is an effective way of measuring progress. ~~<ref name="mit3"> Rice, M. P., O’Connor, G. C., Pierantozzi, R., 2008. Counter Project Uncertainty, MIT Sloan Management Review, Winter, 54-62.</ref>~~		In high uncertainty projects, project teams often need to proceed based on assumptions rather than facts. However, there is a knowledge gap between an assumption and a fact that creates uncertainty. The learning plan encourages teams to maximize the learning per dollar spent in order to reduce the knowledge gaps that lies between assumptions and facts in a low-cost fashion. Richard (2010) defines learning as 'the process of acquiring new, or modifying existing, knowledge, behaviors, skills, values, or preferences based on experience'. <ref name="Psychology"> Gross, Richard (2010), 'Psychology: The Science of Mind and Behaviour', 6th Edition. </ref> Learning per dollar spent' is also how progress is measured when using the learning plan. It builds on the fact that the direction or goal of such projects tend to change much more frequent compared to projects of low uncertainty. Thus, it gives management a metric to continually assess the value of cumulative learning compared to the costs incurred and is an effective way of measuring progress.

	Depending on the degree of uncertainty in a project, different planning approaches can be used to counter project uncertainty. Figure 2 gives an overview of project planning approaches for different levels of uncertainty. The learning plan has the best match with projects of the highest degree of uncertainty.		Depending on the degree of uncertainty in a project, different planning approaches can be used to counter project uncertainty. Figure 2 gives an overview of project planning approaches for different levels of uncertainty. The learning plan has the best match with projects of the highest degree of uncertainty.<ref name="mit3"> Rice, M. P., O’Connor, G. C., Pierantozzi, R., 2008. Counter Project Uncertainty, MIT Sloan Management Review, Winter, 54-62.</ref>

	== The Four Categories of Uncertainty ==		== The Four Categories of Uncertainty ==

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	*Oversight board: A board consisting of managers that acts as quality control and help assess the learning produced by learning loops.<ref name="mit3"> Rice, M. P., O’Connor, G. C., Pierantozzi, R., 2008. Counter Project Uncertainty, MIT Sloan Management Review, Winter, 54-62.</ref>		*Oversight board: A board consisting of managers that acts as quality control and help assess the learning produced by learning loops.<ref name="mit3"> Rice, M. P., O’Connor, G. C., Pierantozzi, R., 2008. Counter Project Uncertainty, MIT Sloan Management Review, Winter, 54-62.</ref>

	== ~~References~~ ==		== Annotated bibliography==
	~~<references />~~		The annotated bibliography contains practical material that can be helpful in conducting the first phase of the learning plan.


	~~== Annotated bibliography==~~
	G.C. O’Connor and M.P. Rice, “A Comprehensive Model of Uncertainty Associated with Radical Innovation,” 2007:		G.C. O’Connor and M.P. Rice, “A Comprehensive Model of Uncertainty Associated with Radical Innovation,” 2007:

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	The Learning Card by the company Strategyzer is a template that can be used for step five and six in the first phase of the learning plan as it offers a practical approach to carry them out.		The Learning Card by the company Strategyzer is a template that can be used for step five and six in the first phase of the learning plan as it offers a practical approach to carry them out.

			== References ==
			<references />

S164338: /* Reducing Uncertainty by Increasing Learning */

2021-02-28T21:17:51Z

Reducing Uncertainty by Increasing Learning

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	[[File: Planning-Approaches.png \|200px\|thumb\|right\|Figure 2: Project planning approaches. *Market, technical, organizational and resource uncertainties. Re-edited version of the one developed by Rice et al. (2008) <ref name="mit3"> Rice, M. P., O’Connor, G. C., Pierantozzi, R., 2008. Counter Project Uncertainty, MIT Sloan Management Review, Winter, 54-62.</ref>]]		[[File: Planning-Approaches.png \|200px\|thumb\|right\|Figure 2: Project planning approaches. *Market, technical, organizational and resource uncertainties. Re-edited version of the one developed by Rice et al. (2008) <ref name="mit3"> Rice, M. P., O’Connor, G. C., Pierantozzi, R., 2008. Counter Project Uncertainty, MIT Sloan Management Review, Winter, 54-62.</ref>]]

	In high uncertainty projects, project teams often need to proceed based on assumptions rather than facts. However, there is a knowledge gap between an assumption and a fact that creates uncertainty. The learning plan encourages teams to maximize the learning per dollar spent in order to reduce the knowledge gaps that lies between assumptions and facts. Richard (2010) defines learning as 'the process of acquiring new, or modifying existing, knowledge, behaviors, skills, values, or preferences based on experience'. <ref name="Psychology"> Gross, Richard (2010), 'Psychology: The Science of Mind and Behaviour', 6th Edition. </ref> Learning per dollar spent' is also how progress is measured when using the learning plan. It builds on the fact that the direction or goal of such projects tend to change much more frequent compared to projects of low uncertainty. Thus, it gives management a metric to continually assess the value of cumulative learning compared to the costs incurred and is an effective way of measuring progress. <ref name="mit3"> Rice, M. P., O’Connor, G. C., Pierantozzi, R., 2008. Counter Project Uncertainty, MIT Sloan Management Review, Winter, 54-62.</ref>		In high uncertainty projects, project teams often need to proceed based on assumptions rather than facts. However, there is a knowledge gap between an assumption and a fact that creates uncertainty. The learning plan encourages teams to maximize the learning per dollar spent in order to reduce the knowledge gaps that lies between assumptions and facts in a low-cost fashion. Richard (2010) defines learning as 'the process of acquiring new, or modifying existing, knowledge, behaviors, skills, values, or preferences based on experience'. <ref name="Psychology"> Gross, Richard (2010), 'Psychology: The Science of Mind and Behaviour', 6th Edition. </ref> Learning per dollar spent' is also how progress is measured when using the learning plan. It builds on the fact that the direction or goal of such projects tend to change much more frequent compared to projects of low uncertainty. Thus, it gives management a metric to continually assess the value of cumulative learning compared to the costs incurred and is an effective way of measuring progress. <ref name="mit3"> Rice, M. P., O’Connor, G. C., Pierantozzi, R., 2008. Counter Project Uncertainty, MIT Sloan Management Review, Winter, 54-62.</ref>

	~~'Learning per dollar spent' is also how progress in projects is measured, which gives management a metric to continually assess the value of cumulative learning compared to the costs incurred.~~		Depending on the degree of uncertainty in a project, different planning approaches can be used to counter project uncertainty. Figure 2 gives an overview of project planning approaches for different levels of uncertainty. The learning plan has the best match with projects of the highest degree of uncertainty.

	Depending on the degree of uncertainty in a project, different planning approaches can be used to counter project uncertainty ~~as illustrated in figure~~ 2~~. The learning plan is the right~~ planning ~~approach~~ for ~~projects of the highest level~~ of uncertainty.


	~~the extent to which an unknown~~ has ~~become a known. This is an effective way of measuring progress in high uncertainty projects because it acknowledges that~~ the ~~direction or goal of high uncertainty projects tend to change much more frequent compared to~~ projects of ~~low uncertainty. This gives managers a foundation to decide on an ongoing basis whether~~ the ~~cumulative learning is~~ of sufficient value to warrant continuing the project. <ref name="mit3"> Rice, M. P., O’Connor, G. C., Pierantozzi, R., 2008. Counter Project Uncertainty, MIT Sloan Management Review, Winter, 54-62.</ref>

	~~Figure 2 illustrates how the learning plan compares to alternative planning approaches in terms of dealing with~~ uncertainty.

	== The Four Categories of Uncertainty ==		== The Four Categories of Uncertainty ==