Delphi Method (expert for identification) - Revision history

Tkokotas at 15:01, 16 November 2018

2018-11-16T15:01:11Z

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			''Developed by Javier Durá María''


	The Delphi method is a technique used, primarily, to make quantitative assessments basing the anonymity as one of the main features compared with other measure methods. Normally is referred as a ‘quasi-anonymity’ because the respondents know one another, but their opinions and judgments remain in complete anonymity always. The technique consists in the structuring of a process of communication through experts to solve complex problems by series of questionnaires per rounds. The name was coined by the philosopher Kaplan, in honour of the Oracle of Delphi, at the beginning of the Cold War to obtain the most reliable consensus of opinion. This is characterized as a method for structuring a group communication process, making it more effective under the premise of a group of judgments is more valid than individual ones for dealing complex problems.		The Delphi method is a technique used, primarily, to make quantitative assessments basing the anonymity as one of the main features compared with other measure methods. Normally is referred as a ‘quasi-anonymity’ because the respondents know one another, but their opinions and judgments remain in complete anonymity always. The technique consists in the structuring of a process of communication through experts to solve complex problems by series of questionnaires per rounds. The name was coined by the philosopher Kaplan, in honour of the Oracle of Delphi, at the beginning of the Cold War to obtain the most reliable consensus of opinion. This is characterized as a method for structuring a group communication process, making it more effective under the premise of a group of judgments is more valid than individual ones for dealing complex problems.
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	== References ==		== References ==
	<references />		<references />


			[[Category:Project Management]][[Category:Uncertaity]][[Category:Risk]][[Category:Method]]

Jaduma: /* Applications of the method */

2017-09-29T10:46:39Z

Applications of the method

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	== Applications of the method ==		== Applications of the method ==

	Delphi has been approved rapidly with hundreds of studies worldwide. Furthermore, the applications of this method have grown in a lot of different ways e.g. project management or social phenomena as human values and attitudes or quality of life <ref name="eight"> Sackman, H. 1974. “Delphi Assessment: Expert Opinion, Forecasting and Group Process”. Retrieved (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235209130_Delphi_Assessment_Expert_Opinion_Forecasting_and_Group_Process) </ref>. Okoli et al. listed examples of the method applications dividing them into two main applications: Forecasting and Issue (identification/prioritization) and Concept/ Framework Development. In Table 1 ~~is reflected~~ the method applications in information systems research.		Delphi has been approved rapidly with hundreds of studies worldwide. Furthermore, the applications of this method have grown in a lot of different ways e.g. project management or social phenomena as human values and attitudes or quality of life <ref name="eight"> Sackman, H. 1974. “Delphi Assessment: Expert Opinion, Forecasting and Group Process”. Retrieved (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235209130_Delphi_Assessment_Expert_Opinion_Forecasting_and_Group_Process) </ref>. Okoli et al. listed examples of the method applications dividing them into two main applications: Forecasting and Issue (identification/prioritization) and Concept/ Framework Development. Table 1 reflects the method applications in information systems research.

	In the research process, the applications of the Delphi method are very diverse. It can stand out among them: the specification of research questions, the selection of variables of interest/generation of propositions, the preliminary identification of causal relationships, the identification of the research topic or the definition of constructs and creation of a common language for discourse <ref name="three" />.		In the research process, the applications of the Delphi method are very diverse. It can stand out among them: the specification of research questions, the selection of variables of interest/generation of propositions, the preliminary identification of causal relationships, the identification of the research topic or the definition of constructs and creation of a common language for discourse <ref name="three" />.

Jaduma: /* Applications of the method */

2017-09-29T10:46:01Z

Applications of the method

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	== Applications of the method ==		== Applications of the method ==

	Delphi has been approved rapidly with hundreds of studies worldwide. Furthermore, the applications of this method have grown in a lot of different ways e.g. project management or social phenomena as human values and attitudes or quality of life <ref name="eight"> Sackman, H. 1974. “Delphi Assessment: Expert Opinion, Forecasting and Group Process”. Retrieved (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235209130_Delphi_Assessment_Expert_Opinion_Forecasting_and_Group_Process) </ref>. Okoli et al. listed examples of the method applications dividing them into two main applications: Forecasting and Issue (identification/prioritization) and Concept/ Framework Development. Table 1 ~~reflects~~ the method applications in information systems research.		Delphi has been approved rapidly with hundreds of studies worldwide. Furthermore, the applications of this method have grown in a lot of different ways e.g. project management or social phenomena as human values and attitudes or quality of life <ref name="eight"> Sackman, H. 1974. “Delphi Assessment: Expert Opinion, Forecasting and Group Process”. Retrieved (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235209130_Delphi_Assessment_Expert_Opinion_Forecasting_and_Group_Process) </ref>. Okoli et al. listed examples of the method applications dividing them into two main applications: Forecasting and Issue (identification/prioritization) and Concept/ Framework Development. In Table 1 is reflected the method applications in information systems research.

	In the research process, the applications of the Delphi method are very diverse. It can stand out among them: the specification of research questions, the selection of variables of interest/generation of propositions, the preliminary identification of causal relationships, the identification of the research topic or the definition of constructs and creation of a common language for discourse <ref name="three" />.		In the research process, the applications of the Delphi method are very diverse. It can stand out among them: the specification of research questions, the selection of variables of interest/generation of propositions, the preliminary identification of causal relationships, the identification of the research topic or the definition of constructs and creation of a common language for discourse <ref name="three" />.

Jaduma: /* Applications of the method */

2017-09-29T10:38:05Z

Applications of the method

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	== Applications of the method ==		== Applications of the method ==

	Delphi has been approved rapidly with hundreds of studies worldwide. Furthermore, the applications of this method have grown in a lot of different ways e.g. project management or social phenomena as human values and attitudes or quality of life <ref name="eight"> Sackman, H. 1974. ~~Delphi~~ Assessment: Expert Opinion, Forecasting and Group ~~Process~~. Retrieved (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235209130_Delphi_Assessment_Expert_Opinion_Forecasting_and_Group_Process) </ref>. Okoli et al. listed examples of the method applications dividing them into two main applications: Forecasting and Issue (identification/prioritization) and Concept/ Framework Development. Table 1 reflects the method applications in information systems research.		Delphi has been approved rapidly with hundreds of studies worldwide. Furthermore, the applications of this method have grown in a lot of different ways e.g. project management or social phenomena as human values and attitudes or quality of life <ref name="eight"> Sackman, H. 1974. “Delphi Assessment: Expert Opinion, Forecasting and Group Process”. Retrieved (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235209130_Delphi_Assessment_Expert_Opinion_Forecasting_and_Group_Process) </ref>. Okoli et al. listed examples of the method applications dividing them into two main applications: Forecasting and Issue (identification/prioritization) and Concept/ Framework Development. Table 1 reflects the method applications in information systems research.

	In the research process, the applications of the Delphi method are very diverse. It can stand out among them: the specification of research questions, the selection of variables of interest/generation of propositions, the preliminary identification of causal relationships, the identification of the research topic or the definition of constructs and creation of a common language for discourse <ref name="three" />.		In the research process, the applications of the Delphi method are very diverse. It can stand out among them: the specification of research questions, the selection of variables of interest/generation of propositions, the preliminary identification of causal relationships, the identification of the research topic or the definition of constructs and creation of a common language for discourse <ref name="three" />.

Jaduma: /* Annotated bibliography */

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Annotated bibliography

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	Okoli, Chitu and Suzanne D. Pawlowski. 2004. “The Delphi Method as a Research Tool: An Example, Design Considerations and Applications.” Information & Management 42(1):15–29. Retrieved (http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0378720603001794).		Okoli, Chitu and Suzanne D. Pawlowski. 2004. “The Delphi Method as a Research Tool: An Example, Design Considerations and Applications.” Information & Management 42(1):15–29. Retrieved (http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0378720603001794).
	*The journal article gives a very good overview of the method on page 2. It was used to adapt the Table 1 for the article from the Applications of the Delphi method in page 3 & 15 and ‘Methodology’ in pages 6-14.		*The journal article gives a very good overview of the method on page 2. It was used to adapt the Table 1 for the article from the Applications of the Delphi method in page 3 & 15 and ‘Methodology’ in pages 6-14.
	Sackman, H. 1974. ~~Delphi~~ Assessment: Expert Opinion, Forecasting and Group ~~Process~~. Retrieved (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235209130_Delphi_Assessment_Expert_Opinion_Forecasting_and_Group_Process).		Sackman, H. 1974. “Delphi Assessment: Expert Opinion, Forecasting and Group Process”. Retrieved (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235209130_Delphi_Assessment_Expert_Opinion_Forecasting_and_Group_Process).
	*The book is divided into three big parts; a deep analysis of the Delphi method, the method versus social science standards and the Delphi evaluation. The book was used in the first and third chapter to amplify the knowledge about the applications in page 3 and anonymity and accountability in pages 62-65, respectively.		*The book is divided into three big parts; a deep analysis of the Delphi method, the method versus social science standards and the Delphi evaluation. The book was used in the first and third chapter to amplify the knowledge about the applications in page 3 and anonymity and accountability in pages 62-65, respectively.
	Skulmoski, Gregory J., Francis T. Hartman, and Jennifer Krahn. 2007. “The Delphi Method for Graduate Research” edited by D. Heymann. Journal of Information Technology Education 6(1):1–21. Retrieved (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/220590716_The_Delphi_Method_for_Graduate_Research).		Skulmoski, Gregory J., Francis T. Hartman, and Jennifer Krahn. 2007. “The Delphi Method for Graduate Research” edited by D. Heymann. Journal of Information Technology Education 6(1):1–21. Retrieved (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/220590716_The_Delphi_Method_for_Graduate_Research).

Jaduma at 10:33, 29 September 2017

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	[[File:Theorical framework.jpg\|500px\|thumb\|'''Figure 1.''' Theoretical framework of Delphi qualitative in research (Figure adapted from (Mirzaaghabeik ~~and~~ Vosoughifar 2016) for the article)]]		[[File:Theorical framework.jpg\|500px\|thumb\|'''Figure 1.''' Theoretical framework of Delphi qualitative in research (Figure adapted from (Mirzaaghabeik & Vosoughifar, 2016) for the article)]]
	The methodology of this technique can be divided into 3 simple points <ref name="three" />:		The methodology of this technique can be divided into 3 simple points <ref name="three" />:

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	{\| class="wikitable"		{\| class="wikitable"
	\|+ style="text-align: left;" \| Table 1. Delphi method applications in information system research (Table adapted from (Okoli ~~and~~ Pawlowski 2004) for the article).		\|+ style="text-align: left;" \| Table 1. Delphi method applications in information system research (Table adapted from (Okoli & Pawlowski, 2004) for the article).
	\|-		\|-
	! scope="col" \| Application !! scope="col" \| Example studies		! scope="col" \| Application !! scope="col" \| Example studies

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Jaduma at 10:15, 29 September 2017

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	== Introduction ==		== Introduction ==

	The Delphi method is a technique used to make quantitative assessments to solve complex problems by series of questionnaires made to experts in the fields of study. Companies consider it, mainly, when they have to tackle important decision-making that will set the future orientations (e.g. portfolio/program management). The results obtained in the analysis have direct implications for the evolution of their procedures, policies or programs <ref name=~~''begin''~~> Loo, Robert. 2002. “The Delphi Method: A Powerful Tool for Strategic Management.” Policing: An International Journal of Police Strategies & Management 25(4):762–69. Retrieved (http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/10.1108/13639510210450677) </ref>.		The Delphi method is a technique used to make quantitative assessments to solve complex problems by series of questionnaires made to experts in the fields of study. Companies consider it, mainly, when they have to tackle important decision-making that will set the future orientations (e.g. portfolio/program management). The results obtained in the analysis have direct implications for the evolution of their procedures, policies or programs <ref name="one"> Loo, Robert. 2002. “The Delphi Method: A Powerful Tool for Strategic Management.” Policing: An International Journal of Police Strategies & Management 25(4):762–69. Retrieved (http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/10.1108/13639510210450677) </ref>.

	=== History ===		=== History ===

	The first experiment using the method was implemented for the improvement in the scores of horse races. The name was coined by the philosopher Kaplan, in honour of the Oracle of Delphi, at the beginning of the Cold War to obtain the most reliable consensus of opinion <ref name=~~''begin''> Loo, Robert. 2002. “The Delphi Method: A Powerful Tool for Strategic Management.” Policing: An International Journal of Police Strategies & Management 25(4):762–69. Retrieved (http:~~/~~/www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/10.1108/13639510210450677) </ref~~>. All this work was secret because of its warlike character. Then, in the early 1960s, some information about the method commenced being published in the literature (Woudenberg 1991). The Delphi method has been used by many different disciplines during the years trying to get the maximum accuracy in every study field and continues these days being a powerful tool in development and improvement.		The first experiment using the method was implemented for the improvement in the scores of horse races. The name was coined by the philosopher Kaplan, in honour of the Oracle of Delphi, at the beginning of the Cold War to obtain the most reliable consensus of opinion <ref name="one" />. All this work was secret because of its warlike character. Then, in the early 1960s, some information about the method commenced being published in the literature (Woudenberg 1991). The Delphi method has been used by many different disciplines during the years trying to get the maximum accuracy in every study field and continues these days being a powerful tool in development and improvement.

	=== Objective of the method ===		=== Objective of the method ===
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	* The usage of frequency distributions to identify agreement patterns.		* The usage of frequency distributions to identify agreement patterns.

	Additionally, Robert Loo ~~(Loo 2002)~~ express his point of view of the characteristics as five main points that can be summarized in the seven presented before and the		Additionally, Robert Loo <ref name="one" /> express his point of view of the characteristics as five main points that can be summarized in the seven presented before and the
	necessity of at least three or four iterations of questionnaires and feedbacks.		necessity of at least three or four iterations of questionnaires and feedbacks.

Jaduma at 10:09, 29 September 2017

2017-09-29T10:09:56Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 10:09, 29 September 2017
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	== Introduction ==		== Introduction ==

	The Delphi method is a technique used to make quantitative assessments to solve complex problems by series of questionnaires made to experts in the fields of study. Companies consider it, mainly, when they have to tackle important decision-making that will set the future orientations (e.g. portfolio/program management). The results obtained in the analysis have direct implications for the evolution of their procedures, policies or programs (Loo 2002).		The Delphi method is a technique used to make quantitative assessments to solve complex problems by series of questionnaires made to experts in the fields of study. Companies consider it, mainly, when they have to tackle important decision-making that will set the future orientations (e.g. portfolio/program management). The results obtained in the analysis have direct implications for the evolution of their procedures, policies or programs <ref name=''begin''> Loo, Robert. 2002. “The Delphi Method: A Powerful Tool for Strategic Management.” Policing: An International Journal of Police Strategies & Management 25(4):762–69. Retrieved (http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/10.1108/13639510210450677) </ref>.

	=== History ===		=== History ===

	The first experiment using the method was implemented for the improvement in the scores of horse races. The name was coined by the philosopher Kaplan, in honour of the Oracle of Delphi, at the beginning of the Cold War to obtain the most reliable consensus of opinion (Loo 2002). All this work was secret because of its warlike character. Then, in the early 1960s, some information about the method commenced being published in the literature (Woudenberg 1991). The Delphi method has been used by many different disciplines during the years trying to get the maximum accuracy in every study field and continues these days being a powerful tool in development and improvement.		The first experiment using the method was implemented for the improvement in the scores of horse races. The name was coined by the philosopher Kaplan, in honour of the Oracle of Delphi, at the beginning of the Cold War to obtain the most reliable consensus of opinion <ref name=''begin''> Loo, Robert. 2002. “The Delphi Method: A Powerful Tool for Strategic Management.” Policing: An International Journal of Police Strategies & Management 25(4):762–69. Retrieved (http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/10.1108/13639510210450677) </ref>. All this work was secret because of its warlike character. Then, in the early 1960s, some information about the method commenced being published in the literature (Woudenberg 1991). The Delphi method has been used by many different disciplines during the years trying to get the maximum accuracy in every study field and continues these days being a powerful tool in development and improvement.

	=== Objective of the method ===		=== Objective of the method ===
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	*The journal article gives an overview of the Method, including the number of participants, rounds and suggested uses in management. The article was used to obtain the data of the response suggested rate for each round to maintain the rigour of the technique on page 154.		*The journal article gives an overview of the Method, including the number of participants, rounds and suggested uses in management. The article was used to obtain the data of the response suggested rate for each round to maintain the rigour of the technique on page 154.
	Woudenberg, Fred. 1991. “An Evaluation of Delphi.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 40(2):131–50. Retrieved (http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/004016259190002W).		Woudenberg, Fred. 1991. “An Evaluation of Delphi.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 40(2):131–50. Retrieved (http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/004016259190002W).
	*The journal article ~~Explains~~ the accuracy of the method and the characteristics attached to it. For the article, it was used to check the History on page 132, the accuracy of the method and the comparison of other judgement methods in pages 132 & 134 and the Characteristics of Delphi in page 133.		*The journal article explains the accuracy of the method and the characteristics attached to it. For the article, it was used to check the History on page 132, the accuracy of the method and the comparison of other judgement methods in pages 132 & 134 and the Characteristics of Delphi in page 133.

			== References ==
			<references />

Jaduma at 14:53, 27 September 2017

2017-09-27T14:53:25Z

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	The Delphi method is a technique used, primarily, to make quantitative assessments basing the anonymity as one of the main features compared with other measure methods. Normally is referred as a ‘quasi-anonymity’ because the respondents know one another, but their opinions and judgments remain in complete anonymity always. The technique consists in the structuring of a process of communication through experts to solve complex problems by series of questionnaires per rounds. The name was coined by the philosopher Kaplan, in ~~honor~~ of the Oracle of Delphi, at the beginning of the Cold War to obtain the most reliable consensus of opinion. This is characterized as a method for structuring a group communication process, making it more effective under the premise of a group of judgments is more valid than individual ones for dealing complex problems.		The Delphi method is a technique used, primarily, to make quantitative assessments basing the anonymity as one of the main features compared with other measure methods. Normally is referred as a ‘quasi-anonymity’ because the respondents know one another, but their opinions and judgments remain in complete anonymity always. The technique consists in the structuring of a process of communication through experts to solve complex problems by series of questionnaires per rounds. The name was coined by the philosopher Kaplan, in honour of the Oracle of Delphi, at the beginning of the Cold War to obtain the most reliable consensus of opinion. This is characterized as a method for structuring a group communication process, making it more effective under the premise of a group of judgments is more valid than individual ones for dealing complex problems.

	Organizations and companies use it when they want to tackle significant decision-making that will set the future guidelines. The results of this analysis have direct implications for the development or revision of a lot of aspects inside the companies. Furthermore, there are relevant applications of this method as forecasting, issue identification, prioritization or concept and framework development that makes it unique and a very powerful tool. The method accuracy can be evaluated by comparing it with other methods of measure with direct interaction, structured and unstructured. After the application of this method, other supplementary analysis to take into account may be the distributional estimates, the individual skills learning and different forms of feedback, as ask the subjects to write their reasons for the answers. Finally, the ethical considerations that have this method are delicate because the participants do not meet face to face, so they can react to ideas unbiased by the participants' identities. This article explains the Delphi methodology and their principles aspects and applications.		Organizations and companies use it when they want to tackle significant decision-making that will set the future guidelines. The results of this analysis have direct implications for the development or revision of a lot of aspects inside the companies. Furthermore, there are relevant applications of this method as forecasting, issue identification, prioritization or concept and framework development that makes it unique and a very powerful tool. The method accuracy can be evaluated by comparing it with other methods of measure with direct interaction, structured and unstructured. After the application of this method, other supplementary analysis to take into account may be the distributional estimates, the individual skills learning and different forms of feedback, as ask the subjects to write their reasons for the answers. Finally, the ethical considerations that have this method are delicate because the participants do not meet face to face, so they can react to ideas unbiased by the participants' identities. This article explains the Delphi methodology and their principles aspects and applications.