Decision tree - Revision history

Tkokotas at 19:00, 17 November 2018

2018-11-17T19:00:47Z

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			''Developed by Frederik Lybek Lind''


	==Abstract==		==Abstract==
	[[File:DT.png\|270px\|right\|thumb\|Figure 1. Decision/event tree for prior decision analysis.<ref name="SPT" />]]		[[File:DT.png\|270px\|right\|thumb\|Figure 1. Decision/event tree for prior decision analysis.<ref name="SPT" />]]

Frederik Lind: /* Abstract */

2017-10-02T21:46:39Z

Abstract

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	This wiki article investigates how the decision tree works as a tool in risk management, what the benefits are and what barriers are related to this tool.		This wiki article investigates how the decision tree works as a tool in risk management, what the benefits are and what barriers are related to this tool.

	''~~Writer:~~ Frederik Lind, s133570''		''Frederik Lind, s133570''

	==The big idea==		==The big idea==

Frederik Lind: /* Limitations and Barriers */

2017-10-02T21:46:12Z

Limitations and Barriers

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	Even with a thorough risk management prior to the project initialization, it is possible that a project manager is will diminish his effort to provide continuous risk management throughout the different project phases.		Even with a thorough risk management prior to the project initialization, it is possible that a project manager is will diminish his effort to provide continuous risk management throughout the different project phases.

			Identifying common actions to different risks on a decision tree can be difficult for larger projects with many risks. Sorting actions on a digital sheet will likely provide a more efficient identification of equivalent actions. A combination of the decision tree and a digital sheet with possible actions for the different risks diminishes this risk.

	==Annotated Bibliography==		==Annotated Bibliography==

Frederik Lind: /* Usability for Project, Programme and Portfolio Risk Management */

2017-10-02T21:40:56Z

Usability for Project, Programme and Portfolio Risk Management

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	Even without taking future increased productivity and inconsistency mitigating into account, the planning team decides to invest in BIM for the minor power plant.		Even without taking future increased productivity and inconsistency mitigating into account, the planning team decides to invest in BIM for the minor power plant.

	~~==Usability for Project, Programme and Portfolio Risk Management==~~




	~~[[File:ExpandedDT.png\|450px\|center\|thumb\|Figure 9. Decision/event tree for pre-posterior decision analysis.<ref name="SPT" />]]~~

	==Limitations and Barriers==		==Limitations and Barriers==

Frederik Lind: /* Limitations and Barriers */

2017-10-02T21:40:11Z

Limitations and Barriers

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	The estimated consequences and probabilities of outcomes happening from risk actions can only be estimated to a certain degree of factuality. The decision tree does not provide tools for enhancement of these parameters.		The estimated consequences and probabilities of outcomes happening from risk actions can only be estimated to a certain degree of factuality. The decision tree does not provide tools for enhancement of these parameters.

	Even with a thorough risk management prior to the project ~~beginning~~, it is possible that a project manager is will diminish his effort to provide continuous risk management throughout the different project phases.		Even with a thorough risk management prior to the project initialization, it is possible that a project manager is will diminish his effort to provide continuous risk management throughout the different project phases.

	==Annotated Bibliography==		==Annotated Bibliography==

Frederik Lind: /* Limitations and Barriers */

2017-10-02T21:39:51Z

Limitations and Barriers

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	The estimated consequences and probabilities of outcomes happening from risk actions can only be estimated to a certain degree of factuality. The decision tree does not provide tools for enhancement of these parameters.		The estimated consequences and probabilities of outcomes happening from risk actions can only be estimated to a certain degree of factuality. The decision tree does not provide tools for enhancement of these parameters.

			Even with a thorough risk management prior to the project beginning, it is possible that a project manager is will diminish his effort to provide continuous risk management throughout the different project phases.

	==Annotated Bibliography==		==Annotated Bibliography==

Frederik Lind: /* Limitations and Barriers */

2017-10-02T21:37:09Z

Limitations and Barriers

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	Furthermore there exists risks that can not be used in the decision tree because they would cause too severe consequences and will have to be avoided or externalized as a certain risk occurring could result in bankruptcy for the firm.		Furthermore there exists risks that can not be used in the decision tree because they would cause too severe consequences and will have to be avoided or externalized as a certain risk occurring could result in bankruptcy for the firm.

	The estimated consequences and probabilities of outcomes happening from risk actions can only be estimated to a certain degree of factuality.		The estimated consequences and probabilities of outcomes happening from risk actions can only be estimated to a certain degree of factuality. The decision tree does not provide tools for enhancement of these parameters.

	==Annotated Bibliography==		==Annotated Bibliography==

Frederik Lind: /* Limitations and Barriers */

2017-10-02T21:36:35Z

Limitations and Barriers

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	==Limitations and Barriers==		==Limitations and Barriers==
			Even though the decision tree provides a new perspective to potential risks and risk responses and will likely expand the identified lists of each, it is difficult to fully exploit the true potential of the decision tree concept without thorough traditional risk identification, risk assessment and risk response analyses.

	~~Some~~ risks can not be used in the decision tree because they would cause too severe consequences and will have to be avoided or externalized.		Furthermore there exists risks that can not be used in the decision tree because they would cause too severe consequences and will have to be avoided or externalized as a certain risk occurring could result in bankruptcy for the firm.

	The probabilities of ~~risks~~ happening can only be estimated to a certain degree of ~~actuality.~~		The estimated consequences and probabilities of outcomes happening from risk actions can only be estimated to a certain degree of factuality.

	~~It requires thorough risk identification, risk assessment and risk response analysis to fully exploit the true potential of the decision tree concept~~.

	==Annotated Bibliography==		==Annotated Bibliography==

Frederik Lind: /* Abstract */

2017-10-02T21:32:07Z

Abstract

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	One tool to help providing factual justification for the treatment of each risk and to establish an overview is the '''decision tree'''. <br>		One tool to help providing factual justification for the treatment of each risk and to establish an overview is the '''decision tree'''. <br>
	Every risk is drawn as a branch on a tree with the possible risk responses as sub-branches and the possible outcomes of each response as the final offshoots.		Every risk is drawn as a branch on a tree with the possible risk responses as sub-branches and the possible outcomes of each response as the final offshoots.

			Exploiting the decision tree fully will likely lead to decreased costs, increased earnings, reduction in time schedule and better investment in future efficiency.

	This wiki article investigates how the decision tree works as a tool in risk management, what the benefits are and what barriers are related to this tool.		This wiki article investigates how the decision tree works as a tool in risk management, what the benefits are and what barriers are related to this tool.

Frederik Lind: /* Benefits and Possibilites */

2017-10-02T21:31:16Z

Benefits and Possibilites

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	==Usability for Project, Programme and Portfolio Risk Management==		==Usability for Project, Programme and Portfolio Risk Management==

	~~==Benefits and Possibilites==~~

	~~Decreased costs, increased earnings, reduction in time and investment in future efficiency.~~